Here's the problems as I see it:
-Regardless of what the Sims team says, eventually funding is cut as sales start to drop off. It is a common trend in the gaming industry that sales for expansions and DLCs start to drop off the longer a franchise is out. Likewise, I think we've all experienced firsthand that Sims games start to get bogged down more and more as they add more packs. I also feel that it is entirely possible that the Sims team themselves have wishful thinking of the game continuing longer, precisely because EA hasn't made their next plans for the team known yet and that scares them. Point is, this game is not immortal, and I would bet Sims 2 and 3 lasted ~4 years not by coincidence, but because this is when it started to make sense to move on. Sims 4 may last longer, but when I say "longer" I do not picture 2025 or something. No, I picture it maybe seeing 2020.
-The community-developer dynamic right now seems so poor that the Sims team continues to pump out Sims 4 renditions of pre-existing pack concepts because it's all the community knows how to ask for, and EA/Maxis believes this is a safe bet saleswise since consumers repeatedly convince themselves "this'll be as good as the Sims 2/3 rendition was!" I think it is painfully obvious that Sims 4, for whatever reason, cannot produce content on the same scale as Sims 2 or Sims 3. Whether it be time restraints, budgeting issues, too small of a staff or what-have-you, it doesn't matter. The community insists on the old classics returning and the Sims team obliges. This however constantly results in disappointment, regardless of what they give us. The only concept that has actually improved in this rendition is Vampires. Everything else thusfar has been - at best - a sidegrade, with the majority being downgrades.
-We are 3 years and 4 months in (starting February) and despite shattering the Stuff Pack record in record time, there is no sign of an end to the stuff pack spam. I think they've only skipped releasing a stuff pack on two occassions, and otherwise they pop out like clockwork every three months. Stuff packs do not add gameplay features, and yet the stuff packs produced outnumber the expansion packs and game packs COMBINED. This shows that their priority is not in gameplay and never has been. Their focus is on producing content as cheaply as possible for as much profit as possible. Stuff packs are cheap by design and secure sales with their deceptively low pricetag ("it's just $10," said the consumer that spent $130 on stuff packs) Those who are still unsatisfied probably never will be.
-Game packs have the best record and still have produced mixed results. Vampires and Parenthood are probably the only two packs held in high regard, but Outdoor Retreat has poor reception and I've said before I view Spa Day as a glorified stuff pack. Dine Out suffers the exact same bugs of every feature related to the retail system. The upcoming Adventure Pack for example seems to show both elements of a hit and a miss: the Adventure concept itself is a welcomed gameplay-orientated one, but the trailer for example showed some rather concerning bits suggesting adventures wouldn't be taken seriously, as is tradition with Sims 4. Point is that even their best pack concept has a mixed record, so it's not as though any of the packs released are reliable for quality.
-As stated above, their budget or staffing must be poor. I consider the best evidence of this being Cats and Dogs and the claims against the vet career. Get To Work released and people complained that employees in stores do absolutely nothing and that the simulation of running a shop simply doesn't work because of this. Fast forward to Cats and Dogs, they repackage and re-release the exact same faulty system and lo and behold, people are complaining their hired workers do absolutely nothing. This same system had already failed and proved buggy not once, but twice. (Dine Out) Despite this, they re-released it. It's not just that system either; the entire career layout heavily copied that of the doctor career, whereas the treat maker even recycled the animations of the scientist career's chem set. Others have pointed out this is the first time that a washer and dryer have been virtually identical to each other too. To me, this screams that either they lack the staff neccesary, they lack the funding neccesary, or it's their goal to cut as many corners as possible so they willingly leave such errors or cheap hotfixes in, despite consumer dissatisfaction.
-The price of the game has increased in various countries. The price increase is specific to the Sims 4 and there's absolutely zero correlation amongst the countries that saw an increase. No pattern in currency value or exchange rates, no pattern in politics or policy, and presumably it's not an issue of taxes or legislature towards video games since EA only hiked up the price for this game specifically and not for all of their products. I am left to conclude they simply want more money and felt they are capable of getting more money from this community. To see them thinking about money and profit despite the above points regarding how cheaply made their newest expansion is, I have my sincere doubts we will see a sudden change in the production value of future packs or that they will suddenly improve the budget/staffing for this game.
In short, I see no reason to believe that Sims 4 has much remaining for it, or that anyone should be holding out hope for it's future. Pets was cheaply made, Seasons will be cheaply made too. People warned about the Vet clinic probably being buggy because it copy-pasted a buggy system, and lo and behold it was. (I owe yet another I-told-you-so for this) If you've spent 3 years and 4 months looking to the future to give you hope...? It's time to give up hope and face reality.
Nothing about the recent activity of the company suggests they're on a crusade to improve quality, improve release rate, change their focus of what kind of content they release, or anything like that. Infact, some moves even suggest the complete opposite. We can safely expect more of the same.
I personally predict we will probably see Seasons release this year, maybe a University-type expansion next year since it's another highly suggested EP, and then after that I think the game will slowly come to an end while EA looks for ways to turn Sims into a mobile game or some other cash cow that allows them to monetize as much as possible. (yknow, a successful one instead of the constant failures they've had....not that they'll ever succeed. All a pipedream on their end) I actually find that the release date of Sims mobile should serve as an ominous warning that this game will meet it's end. What better way to sell their new mobile game than to put an end to all other Sims alternatives...?
The Sims team likely insists this game will go on and on both because it's good for sales, and perhaps (speculation here) because they themselves understand the future beyond Sims 4 looks bleak, and that's scurry because it means post-Sims is a world where they could wind up in any number of positions at the company that they may or may not like. Perhaps not bad for them, but change tends to be uncomfortable and unwelcome, so I could see it being unwanted for them too.
tl;dr This game is pretty much already dead to me (don't see myself purchasing further content save maybe for a Witch GP), and I'm pretty sure it's stayed afloat this long by sailing on a sea of denial.
