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We can only speculate, but if I had to guess it's a shift in production because they have noticed that people are spending less money on videogames so they are focusing on expansion packs which gives people more reason to buy them because they contain a lot of content.
A large market for The Sims is most likely Gen Z and they have cut down on video game spending significantly by nearly a quarter of what they used to spend: https://www.vice.com/en/article/gen-z-is-cutting-back-on-video-game-purchases-like-really-cutting-back
Expansion Packs also have larger budgets which makes them able to spend more money on marketing to reach out. Which they did with Enchanted By Nature. Their collaboration with celebrities could have been an attempt to reach out to the younger generation.
So I think it's because things are more expensive now, young people are saving their money and that resulted in smaller packs falling back.
As you said we can only speculate but I think it is showing of the times. Everything is getting expensive and people are not spending as much on entertainment (not just Sims franchise). As soon as I saw the second summer sale aka Mid-Summer Sale so soon after the first Summer Sale, I figured all video games sales were down (I didn't need an article to let me know), and the second sale was to try to sell some more digital products. If we also get a End of Summer Sale and/or Back to School Sale—then that will be really telling.
Also the fact they didn't have their 60% off old/older EPs also was concerning, as every sale I have been around for has had it, and I didn't buy it at 50% because I know we can get it at 60%—so I am waiting. At this late stage, I almost think they should just keep the discounts on older packs as a permanent practice. Show you (EA) get times are tough, and we aren't going to spend as much on things at full price as a general practice.
Again as mentioned if there was more transparency, I think it would be well received. If they did something like if you buy an EP at full price you get the original LE pre-order items, it be incentive to sell packs at full price, and a second chance at the items. Or maybe sell the LE items in small micro packs as support Sims 4 for contribution bumps. It both shows support to the franchise and gets people something they may have missed out on.
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