Guys, we have a problem

minthasims wrote:
I think it relates to Ebenezer Burns somehow. Stingy until Christmas eve and then bam, a change of heart and gift bags for everyone, lol. Isn't that one of the Christmas themes this year?

Would have made more sense if they had Ebenezer Burns Unlock to have a storyline that lead up to something like that.

adidas - I never said my theory was FACT, I have always said it was theory. But it simply makes NO sense to go by what is shown on the totally unlocked community prizes screen (and where people are getting access to a totally unlocked version is a mystery to me, and makes the screen a bit suspect in and of itself, since we haven't even unlocked the first community prize) because the figures there don't shake out against the paltry number of gift bags we're receiving each day.

I may not know the actual truth here, and none of us will until/unless the first community goal is hit. But I know what makes sense, and that screen neuro's showing does not make sense. I tend to go by Occam's Razor: the simplest explanation is usually the right one. The simplest explanation here is that the numbers shown on the community pop-up are grossly unrealistic, and therefore inaccurate. :mrgreen:

HCoinslot wrote:

indieauthorALH wrote:

wcthesecret wrote:
no, 2.5 BILLION gift bags.

Cards, bags, whatever. It's still looking like a pretty obvious developer fake-out to me. :)

Agreed. This is punishment for all the threads about the Halloween counter being fake. Bottom line - when they put this entire event together, they created these prizes with the intention of giving them away for free. Why would they make that impossible?

The only valid argument I've seen to counter why they would not want to give them away would be that they want to sell the community prizes post-event. Who is going to buy xmas items after the event is over and the snow is gone? Not to mention they are seemingly making money hand over fist on the wheel, since there has been about 2-3 thousand threads about how someone blew way to much money on the wheel to get all the prizes.

Why would they make prizes at all if they intended them to be impossible to win?

Once all the wheel prizes have been collected the wheel is so useless. why would i collect 1000 gift cards to get a chance to spin the wheel to get gift cards?
one all the prizes were collected one space should have a donut and one space should have gift bags. Even if they are very low odds at least people would continue to spin.

HCoinslot wrote:
The only valid argument I've seen to counter why they would not want to give them away would be that they want to sell the community prizes post-event. Who is going to buy xmas items after the event is over and the snow is gone?

...and how big would the mass exodus of players be, if EA were to attempt such a transparently greedy tactic? I'm not saying game devs never do anything greedy. Just that the successful ones are a lot better at hiding it. :wink:

Someone said gift cards and bags double their value on Christmas. I'm not sure of this is just for the day or for tr remainder of the event. If so, would the entire counter accumulation thus far double automatically as well and could that put it into position to give out everything?

Martinkification wrote:

As you can see on this picture I have thoroughly investigated the matter and I came to the shocking discovery that we will not be able to accomplish all the community goals at this rate. (The table is cut by 1,000,000 but this is still accurate)
In fact if you look at the "to date" you can clearly see that we will closely not accomplish the 2nd community goal.

The problem with your math is that you are treating it as a constant rate since the first day. If you factor in the current level as more stable than the average for the last eight days, the current total puts us somewhere between the second and third prize on Christmas Day (I forget what it is exactly, partially because the rate is going up every day).

I wish somebody had archived all of the posts at Halloween time complaining about exactly the same stuff, with exactly the same flawed math, so that we could just link to them rather than try to refute people.

thatguamguy wrote:

Martinkification wrote:

As you can see on this picture I have thoroughly investigated the matter and I came to the shocking discovery that we will not be able to accomplish all the community goals at this rate. (The table is cut by 1,000,000 but this is still accurate)
In fact if you look at the "to date" you can clearly see that we will closely not accomplish the 2nd community goal.

The problem with your math is that you are treating it as a constant rate since the first day. If you factor in the current level as more stable than the average for the last eight days, the current total puts us somewhere between the second and third prize on Christmas Day (I forget what it is exactly, partially because the rate is going up every day).

I wish somebody had archived all of the posts at Halloween time complaining about exactly the same stuff, with exactly the same flawed math, so that we could just link to them rather than try to refute people.

The rate is linked to the exact time right now with the function Now. It calculates the rate exactly to the moment where the data comes in meaning that it is not constant at all. The rate right now is calulated by the momentary collected cards/bags divided by the days that have gone by

Everyone needs to relax. Go check out spAnser's website, he has a page on their dedicated to the community prizes countdown. Just with today, the amount per second has risen substantially and we should have the first one around Wednesday/Thursday. The rate will continue to rise as well; at this rate we are almost about to achieve the Yes Guy (4th out of 5th community prize) before the Christmas update closes in 3 weeks.

indieauthorALH wrote:
adidas - I never said my theory was FACT, I have always said it was theory. But it simply makes NO sense to go by what is shown on the totally unlocked community prizes screen (and where people are getting access to a totally unlocked version is a mystery to me, and makes the screen a bit suspect in and of itself, since we haven't even unlocked the first community prize) because the figures there don't shake out against the paltry number of gift bags we're receiving each day.

I may not know the actual truth here, and none of us will until/unless the first community goal is hit. But I know what makes sense, and that screen neuro's showing does not make sense. I tend to go by Occam's Razor: the simplest explanation is usually the right one. The simplest explanation here is that the numbers shown on the community pop-up are grossly unrealistic, and therefore inaccurate. :mrgreen:

you've simply proven my point. Congratulations.

I won't lie, I'm pretty embarrassed for some people on this forum.
It's crazy to watch sometimes. But I keep entertained that's for sure.