Good luck everyone :D

arturo_soldatini wrote:Totally agree... We have other 26 days to win the prizes on the wheel, I can't see the reason to spend money to buy coins. Maybe last days, but not now. Is part of the update, so if I have all the prizes now, I'll get bored in a week of the new content. Is better waiting in my opinion. And if I have to be honest, this is the less expensive update of the year, not many items purchasable with donuts, almost everything can be unlocked with the wheel and the personal/community rewards.+1My strategy is to see how many prizes I get over the next almost four weeks and then spend donuts on tokens if there are prizes that I haven't won by then.I have been playing for almost a year - started last year around Christmas and had 9 Christmas lights.

barcaboyz34 wrote:Have you actually tried to get the last prize thread creator??? The wheel is without doubt RIGGED, it speeds up and slows down to stop you getting that last prize. The number of times I spun that wheel and could see I was going to land on the prize dead on, only for the wheel to splutter to a grinding halt prematurely, almost had me launching my tablet against the wall.Your probability model would work fine if the wheel spun FAIRLY at a consistent speed all the time, but it doesn't. It took me 73 spins to get the last prize, my gf took 65 spins. Are we really just the unlucky 1% or is it plainly obvious the wheel is rigged?Nope.Whether you win the prize or not has already been determined a long time before the wheel stops spinning.Heres how these kind of things work.When you set the wheel in motion, it will make a call to a random number generator, for the purpose of this example, lets say the generator returns a number between 1 and 100.If the number returned is:1-10 - You win prize one (money)11-20 - You win prize two (money)21-30 - You win prize three (money)31-40 - You win prize four (money)41-50 - You win prize five (money)51-60 - You win prize six (money)61-70 - You win prize seven (money)71-80 - You win prize eight (money)81-90 - You win prize nine (money)91-100 - You win prize ten (the last non money prize)This number is returned the instant you start the spin, what happens after that is just for the benefit of making the wheel be an actually wheel, rather than an arbitrary value that determines whether you won or not.What is likely occurring is that depending on the number returned by the random number generator, it chooses a 'wheel animation' to play for you.I don't know how many different animations there are, for the sake of this example lets say there are 3.If the random number generated is:1-45 - The wheel animation lands nowhere near your prize46-90 - The wheel animation gives you the impression you are going to win, but you don't (tease animation)90-100 - The wheel animation lands on the prize you want.As I said, thats just an example, there could be many more than three wheel animations, but the point of my post here is that the random number that determines whether you won the prize or not will have been returned the instant you set the wheel in motion, what happens after that is all for show.

Hello all, I am not going to say that this is rigged, but I will relate my experience. Let's just say I have been playing this game for awhile and have everything in the game. Let's also say that I have seen the slow changes to make sure EA makes a lot of cash from this game, which begs my curiosity how the profit margin stacks up to other games. Enough with my opine. So out of 20 spins, it landed on the exact same pie 12 times out of 20, yes the same cash one. 4 times on a second pie, another cash one. A third pie 2 times. And then two seperate pies. I don't know the mathematical probabilities, but 14 out of 20 spins on the exact same pies, even when I changes starting points of the wheel. But, I am a little suspicious from my experience.

I believe where you start the spin affects the outcome also. So if you try to start your spin on a different piece every time and spin the wheel with the same amount of force every time you can see a pattern. For me it's 3 or 4 pieces from the piece I started the spin on. I hope this makes sense.

jfcal2005 wrote:yes.I don't have any christmas lights, nothing and on my wheel, i can't see a single cash section.http://s24.postimg.org/z1fzot7ut/Screenshot_2013_12_12_19_48_22.pngThe cash and extra vouchers will replace the items already on your wheel, once you have won them.

The maths of the Wheel (probability/odds)

DJDK-ec
11 years ago
Rukii wrote:
I have only tried it once (right now actually) and I got the claus building, thought that was what everyone got on their first spin, guess not. How come some of you already have been able to spin it many times, can I get coins besides from the bar and/or using donuts?

Nope, donuts. (There is a thread on gettin them from gifts, but I haven't read it.)
fastdan1
11 years ago
Rukii wrote:
I have only tried it once (right now actually) and I got the claus building, thought that was what everyone got on their first spin, guess not. How come some of you already have been able to spin it many times, can I get coins besides from the bar and/or using donuts?

I've spun 3 times. Twice with coins from Egg Nog Bar, and once with a coin I found in a gift. Received Marge and Maggie snow people (already owned both from last year), and lights for Krabappel's apartment (which I did not get last year).
PatrickSays
11 years ago
DJDK-ec wrote:
fastdan1 wrote:
Per spAnser from another thread...

spAnser wrote:
I will just chime in here but from looking at the files the Wheel is nothing more than a glorified mystery box.

It has chance numbers associated with each section of the wheel.

Claus Co 1.56%
Decorated Houses #1 20.22%
Snow Monster 1.68%
Decorated Houses #2 20.22%
Helter Shelter 2.25%
Decorated Houses #3 20.22%
Ice God 2.25%
Mr. Plow & Plow King 5.05%
Simpson Family Snowmen 13.48%

Yes I am aware that is adds up to more than 100%

Using the odds spAnser got out of the files, this is how the wheel should really look like:
http://i1303.photobucket.com/albums/ag145/DJDK-ec/Unbenannt_zps93e0062b.jpg

You forgot the cash slot, which would take up 80%.

I had 2 free spins, both cash ... Boo :(
I'm a long time player, have all Christmas lights. Probably will get a real prize on day 20. I guess ok with me.
DJDK-ec
11 years ago
^@PatrickSays: Actually the "Decorated Houses" turn into the "Cash" sections, once you got them all and the other prizes turn into gift cards, once you get them.
MaxxSpider
11 years ago
fastdan1 wrote:
Per spAnser from another thread...

spAnser wrote:
I will just chime in here but from looking at the files the Wheel is nothing more than a glorified mystery box.

It has chance numbers associated with each section of the wheel.

Claus Co 1.56%
Decorated Houses #1 20.22%
Snow Monster 1.68%
Decorated Houses #2 20.22%
Helter Shelter 2.25%
Decorated Houses #3 20.22%
Ice God 2.25%
Mr. Plow & Plow King 5.05%
Simpson Family Snowmen 13.48%

Yes I am aware that is adds up to more than 100%

I tend to believe this being the way it actually is and not what the OP says
cvf007
11 years ago
I've gotten one thing off the wheel and then money so far now... I just wanna win the snowman monster and not give a care anymore
justglyding
11 years ago
Obviously I didn't have the odds when I made my post, now we have seen them and that's great, they can be factored in to give accurate probabilities, but the main points stand which are:

A) what prize you win is determined long before the wheel stops spinning, and if it 'almost lands on what you want' it's just for show and
B) it's a low probability gamble, especially once many of the prizes with higher odds are removed from the board. If 100 people are down to the ice god as their final prize, only ~2 will get it on their first spin, around 20 people out of the 100 will win it within 10 spins.

Does this make the wheel rigged? As I said, of course it doesn't...

It'd be like going fishing in a pond, there's 8 dumb fish and 2 smart ones. You catch the 8 dumb fish straight away and are thinking 'this is great' but you can't get those last two. You see them swim close and think you almost have them, but it just doesn't happen.

What do you do at this point? Do you take the 8 fish you caught and quit while you are ahead, or do you sit at the pond all day hoping for the small chance of catching the last two fish, only to end up breaking your rod over your knee and declaring the pond 'rigged'?
shannontj
11 years ago
To rephrase for those who have trouble with the percentages, the decorated house/cash slots each have an approximately 1/5 chance of landing on any given spin. Since there are three of these slots, you will get cash (or lights) on about 3/5 of your spins. The other 2/5 of the time you will get gift cards or the prize(s) you are waiting for.

I still need the ice god (approx. 1/50 chance) and Plow King (approx. 1/20 chance). I'm hoping my free coins will get me there without any more donut expense!
adaway26
11 years ago
man I got the helter shelter on my first go and so assumed it was probably one of the easier ones to get. Feeling pretty lucky right now!
Still not exactly confident looking at some of those other percentages but hey, we'll have plenty of chances by the time this event finishes :)
mbemom
11 years ago
Wow, thanks to OP for putting this together. I never thought it was rigged but it is nice to know the odds. I guess I'm lucky in this went because I have only spun the wheel the 5 free times and 3 doin it times and I got helper shelter and mr plow. I also had all the lights from last year so I'm pretty happy with the wheel. Don't think I will be getting anymore donuts though, at least not for that for a while. I'll wait to see what else I get iver the course if the event and maybe buy chances at the end. It sure is tempting though.