Starting off your response with, "You do realize that with a perfect matchmaking system...", that you're just trying to present your opinion as fact. Your percentages and equations don't make sense because you don't back them up with any data. There's no such thing as players having the "same skill level". We're talking about human beings, not programmable robots. Where do you get the "50/50 chance" from?
For one, no two players have the same internet connection to an online game. Which is one reason why developers use lag compensation to try to balance out player experience. Unfortunately, as in the case of the Call Of Duty franchise, it's clear that their devs calibrate lag to favor players with weaker internet connections to the servers. Especially through the Peer-2-Peer system COD used for years.
It appears that you didn't even read my post. As I mentioned before, Medal Of Honor: Allied Assault did not have SBMM. Yet, it provided players with the best experience because they played against other players of all levels of experience and skill. You don't improve your skills by playing against, much less along side, another player with the same experience as you. Your best chance of learning and improving your skills is to play around others you can learn from. Mainly better players.
The whole SBMM system is designed to throttle the player base by supposedly making their opponents weaker, or (supposedly) the same skill level. If you paid attention to the SBMM system, you would see that it's based on how a player succeeded or failed in each match. Then, matched them up with players with similar KDR. All based on match by match outcomes. But, that is not an accurate system for determining a player's skill. Because you have to take into account the quality of connection all players have to the game. Any one that's played video games knows that hit detection and lag fluctuate from match to match, server to server. This whole SBMM system is designed to help new players have a better experience, and it has nothing to do with skill.
SBMM is purely wishful thinking. No one has a perfect record when it comes to video games. Everyone has matches where they have a bad experience, where no matter what they do they get killed more in one match than other matches. It's just the way online gaming is. When I first started playing Medal Of Honor: Allied Assault, I died a lot. Sure it was frustrating. But, I was new to the game. So, it made sense that it would take practice and experience to improve before I would start getting better scores. And you don't need percentages and KDR to know that. If you can't handle your character dying when you first start playing a game, then maybe go back to reading books. You have to let people play against everyone, if you expect them to learn and improve.
