Heirloom

I have been playing since day 1 and still play, I got my Heirloom right when Bloodhounds axe came out. But at the time i had like 25-50hrs hours and now i have over 1400hrs and still have not got another. I am stuck with a heirloom on a legend i dont use and never will. Never had an option to pick what i wanted with shards, no shards at the time, only wraiths Knife and the axe. I opened a ton of packs and bought some quite a few times since and nothing else since.  I would give you the axe if i could! Almost at the point to uninstall and find a new game.

I would say you are lucky if you get one later in the game rather early. They have a sight that you can enter you level, battle pass numbers on each so you can get an idea on how many packs you opened. 500 is a lot of packs. I would check that out and see for sure you opened over 500, and then in detail explain each season and level in here in the bug/glitch forum. They need to add something for the older players to trade in for Heirloom shards! 

It is common to underestimate the number of packs opened. I used to collect them up and open by the hundred, making a note. Now I open 10 weekly to get the additional pack and again make a note. All my packs are from play

There are 3rd party sites that can give you a rough idea of where you are in the countdown to your heirloom, like the one below

Pack track site

The new level cap in Apex Legends is effectively 2000. 

You can loop through levels 1-500 4 times.

The total number of packs you can now earn, through leveling up to 2000, is 544 packs. That is a guaranteed heirloom.

Fyi for heirloom purposes, Thematic packs are the same as Apex packs, they count towards the 500 pack heirloom guarantee, while Collection event packs are different, as they just count towards the collection event reward and not towards the heirloom gurantee.

Recently published Heirloom Shard drop rates indicate an actual drop rate percentage of 0.045%. 

EA News on pack heirloom %