I have a question about the puck ceiling!

@Gretel_auNaDMy best guess off of what you've stated is that you're around 380-400 packs. You can run your own estimates at the link below. So you need an additional 120-122 packs. You might get lucky and get shards sooner than that, you might not get shards until the 500th pack. I got my shards in the 480-500 range.

My best guess for the odds of getting shards are around .2%. Those odds could be slightly higher than .2%, it depends how they have the RNG set. But .2% seems to make the most sense to me based on what information is available and what I have seen amongst my in game friends. The way the packs work, it does not matter if you've opened 498 packs or 1 pack, the odds of receiving shards will always be .2% per pack. The odds of receiving shards do not increase with each pack opened, doing that with an RNG would be complicated. They would basically have to adjust the entire RNG system for each individual pack opened. I think this is where a lot of people get frustrated. They assume the odds increase with each pack opened and that it "should" happen soon. But that's just not how an RNG works.

The only thing that matters is when you open the pack. If you stop the RNG at the precise moment that Shards are won, you'll get them. The odds are just very slim that you'll stop the RNG at that precise millisecond. RNG are basically constantly cycling through number sequences. When you press "open" it stops the RNG producing a specific number sequence. That number sequence correlates to the premiums items/content available in the game. You are then given those items. The guarantee for shards at 500 packs is simply putting a counter in game, it tracks the packs and once you hit 500 gives you shards.

It's theoretically possible for someone to get shards 2 or even 3 packs in a row. How ever it's extremely unlikely to happen.
https://mike.zarandona.com/coded/apex-packs-calc/