@clept0biosis Its a gamble. Some get it quickly and I received my first heirloom shards at around 2300hours.
https://apexlegendsstatus.com/apex-pack-calculator
You should use the above calculator to see how much you have for the guaranteed heirloom.
For me it took around 450 packs of the max 500 for the heirloom.
As @Airish85 mentioned, here are 3rd party sites that can give you a rough idea of where you are in the countdown to your heirloom, like the one below
https://apexlegendsstatus.com/apex-pack-calculator
The new level cap in Apex Legends is effectively 2000.
You can loop through levels 1-500 4 times.
The total number of packs you can now earn, through leveling up to 2000, is 544 packs. That is a guaranteed heirloom.
Recently published Heirloom Shard drop rates indicate an actual drop rate percentage of 0.045%.
https://answers.ea.com/t5/News-Game-Updates/Apex-Legends-Minimum-Global-Drop-Rates/m-p/14143089#M192
I collect mine up by the 100 and then open them. Its easy to count to 5 then 😃
