@CompleatBeetNice guide! I was mildly concerned this would contain suggestions of rituals to increase the odds of getting one. There are no rituals that will increase the odds of getting one aside from buying 500 apex packs.
Thanks! I appreciate your compliment of my guide.
As of right now, you cannot obtain 500 Apex Packs without buying at least some, but if you've gotten good fortune cookies, you might get Shards from a Pack you got for reaching a certain level or a BP Apex Pack.
Again, if you get Shards before your 500th pack, just know how insanely lucky you are. I think it's safe to assume that you have a 1 in 500 chance (0.002%) every time you open an Apex Pack however there is no confirmation: all we are sure of is that the chance is LESS THAN 1% and once you open your 500th pack that chance rockets to 100%.
Oh, and the idea your chance increases with every pack is not true. A lot of Heirloom Guides say that your first pack has a 1 in 500 chance and this increases to 1 in 499, 1 in 488 and so on until the 500th pack which is 1 in 1. Your chance remains as <1% until you open your 500th Apex Pack which guarantees a Heirloom Shard pack.
I wish this theory was true but Heirloom Unboxings have proven this is definitely not the case ☹️
@CompleatBeetYup! I had to buy the additional packs to get mine. I think I purchased 300 apex packs or so. I can't remember exactly.
I have about 11,000 crafting materials at the moment. Saving those for either Bang or Wattson Heirloom, I have not decided yet. When those events happen, I'm going to craft as many of the event items as possible to try and minimize the number of event packs I have to buy.
If I have to guess the odds of getting a heirloom from any one pack are around .2-.5%. The guarantee is at 500 packs, 1/500 gives ya a .2% chance. So I'd say it's probably in that neighborhood.
You are 100% correct the odds do not increase with each pack opened. The apex pack system is RNG based. Increasing the odds would require an entirely new RNG sequence for each pack opened. That would mean the devs would have to create 500 different RNG, which would be very time consuming.
That would mean the devs would have to create 500 different RNG, which would be very time consuming.
Um no, they would not have to create 500 separate systems. They would need to adjust their formula to include number of packs open so far when accounting for the % of the heirloom drop. It's an extremely easy change, but it also would make it much easier for people to get the Heirlooms, and they obviously wouldn't want something like that because they want people to spend as much money as they can before the 500th pack.
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