@DarthValtrex .5% and 1%?
I would say the odds are far lower than that.
If they were .5% per pack, after 250 packs you would have a better than 71% of having hit an heirloom. Clearly, that's not right. That's the math.
One of the biggest problem with loot box mechanics is people who are putting money into them really don't understand the mathematics and how these things are designed to work. To get what you really want (most people is heirlooms) is pretty much zero.
I did a long post on the FIFA forms a few years ago during TOTY and how "sTrEaMeRs" and "CoNtEnT cReAtOrS" and "PrOs" did pack openings and got nothing after spending 10K+ in FIFA points. That's how it's supposed to work. That's the math. Sadly, the usual conspiracy theorists came out. You can always tell who paid attention in science/math class and who was eating the glue :-P
- DR
@RockDokRockwhat math is that?
If your math was applied to a coinflip, than getting heads 4 times means you have 200% chance for tails?
I never knew % chances were stacking each unsuccesful roll.
@damsonwhufndthis Basic high school probability.
Taking the claim at face value. Each pack has an independent probability of 0.5% or 0.005 of having an heirloom (worst case in the claim of 0.5% to 1%.
The chance of *NOT* getting an heirloom in an individual pack therefore must be 99.5% (.995).
If I have 250 apex packs the probability of not getting an heirloom in any of them is .995^{250}. This is approx 28.5%
Therefore you have a probability of 71.5% of getting at least 1 heriloom in 250 packs if the individual probability weights for an heirloom (per pack) are 0.5%.
In practice these weights may vary, I get that, but for the sake of example the values suggested clearly aren't right. They will be *far far* lower.
Yes?
% chances don't "stack". I have no idea what you are on about.
- DR
