How Random are the packs
Can some one explain if a pack probability is 32 % for a TOTS player how come it’s still harder to get a top TOTS player than a not so good . So I’ve opened 2 packs both times I got TOTS Doumbia even though it’s meant to be totally random I’ve managed to get same player twice in row out of all the TOTS available but yet can’t manage to get a TOTS Ronaldo or Kane once. Surely if it’s just a 32% chance and totally random then you should be getting KANE just as randomly as Doumbia.
Hey toffee666, there is a lot to take in around this and it can be confusing.
Good news is that we have a handy help article that goes through pack probabilities here
Pack probabilities are calculated by simulating the opening of a very large number of packs for each pack type in the Store. The number of packs opened in a simulation varies based on rarity, but it will always be enough to be statistically valid. We then re-run this process with every content update.
Specific pack content is randomly selected from large groups of available items. The probability of receiving any particular item within the stated range or type may vary. Because of the large number of available items, the probability of receiving a particular individual item is significantly less than the displayed probability for the OVR or special category range, and is often less than 1%.
Any probability percentages that you see are on a pack-by-pack basis and are not cumulative. That means that each pack opening is an independent event; opening multiple packs does not change the likelihood of being awarded an item from a specific category. If you flip a coin three times and get heads each time, you still have a 50% chance of getting heads if you flip the coin again.
A pack will always contain one or more items of the minimum guaranteed rarity or rating in the description and pack probability. Packs that include probabilities for Rare Gold Player Items may occasionally grant active Team of the Week, Hero, Icon, or Campaign Player Items. Packs that include probabilities for Rare Bronze or Silver Player Items may occasionally grant active Team of the Week items, but only for Team of the Week items that are variants of Bronze or Silver Player Items respectively.
Live content and new items are added to Ultimate Team for the current title on a regular basis, which could change the probability numbers throughout the season. Probabilities are accurate as of the timestamp indicated at the bottom of that screen.
If you have further questions, please let us know.
Darko
