Incorrect probabilities for Frozen Fortune pack
Hi,
If I check the probabilities for the Frozen Fortune pack, they do not add up to 100%. What I see in the game is as follows (first two columns only; I added the cumulative percentages myself):
| Item | Probability | Cumulative |
| 10 million coins | 24.26% | 24.26% |
| 4,000 gems | 24.26% | 48.52% |
| 200 rank up tokens | 18.20% | 66.72% |
| 300 rank up tokens | 12.13% | 78.85% |
| 50 festive fixtures shards | 8.09% | 86.94% |
| 111+ OVR player | 4.04% | 90.98% |
| 150 festive fixtures shards | 1.21% | 92.19% |
| 112+ OVR player | <1% | <=93.18% |
| 115 OVR mixed version player (1 of 3 pick) | <1% | <=94.17% |
For the cumulative percentages, I have assumed that the 112+ and the 115 player pack would have at most a probability of 0.99%, which is why the last two cumulative percentages show to be less than or equal to the previous cumulative + 0.99%.
I validated that the percentages shown while using English language settings or Dutch language settings are the same, and they are as depicted in the table above.
Clearly this has to be incorrect and I am given incorrect expectations towards the likelihood of getting one of the most interesting packs. I would for example assume that there is a probability of more than 20% to obtain other rewards than the coins, gems, or rank up points, as their combined probability should be 78.85%, but then there is at least 5.83% of "nothing" next to the shards or players. So this implies that there is not a probability of 21.15% on the shards or players packs, but it's significantly les than that. And if someone would claim that those at least 5.83% should actually be on those packs only - based on how the percentages are shown in descending order, that would not make sense.
The page showing the probabilities has a link at the bottom to click here for more details. That page claims, among others, that percentages are set and validated through simulation of opening a large number of those packs for every content update. The simulation should have resulted in "nothing" in at least 5.83% of pack openings for the above percentages to be valid. Pack details show though that you can buy this pack 9 times. As there are 9 items one can obtain, I feel it is safe to assume that getting nothing at all on a purchase is not a valid outcome - and thus the percentages are wrong despite the validation through simulation.
To me, this feels like a very serious issue. I believe the information presented needs to be corrected a.s.a.p. - and I'd even go as far as stating that at least all players that have purchased items from this box deserve the FP they spent on this pack credited into their accounts as compensation, or alternatively a pick between the 115 players Bale, Ribéry or Iniesta.
Kind regards,
Kannix
