"jonnydeathstar;c-1961729" wrote:
Thanks for the response. I think it's a little rough to say that I'm "choosing to make a math error" - it implies that I knew the right answer to start with. I don't (or didn't, when I first posted), which is why I'm working my way through the problem. But I do appreciate the help, and I see where I'm going wrong.
Not implying you knew the right answer, but you chose to use a wrong variable. The drop rate for purple gear is definitely 20%. I tracked all kinds of drops for months and months, and some things for over a year. Foil hat wearers will tell you otherwise, but it’s solidly 20%. You were operating with a drastically lower number. Might seem like a small amount, but as I said it compounds thousands of times.
Feel free to experiment yourself if you have the patience. Do it over a long period of time. A day or two is useless as an indication. Just one 50 refresh a day, and see what you get over 3 months.
"jonnydeathstar;c-1961729" wrote:
You gambled and won - kudos. I got 12 G13 finishers for 12 plays on one of my refreshes. I felt pretty good about that.
Nope. I got just a tad over 20% for a tiny sample size. Normal day of farming. Like with the lottery, you got to be in it to win it. The difference is that we know the precise rate that “winning tickets” show up. If there were a stack of scratch-off tickets, and you had inside info from the makers that 20% were winners, then it’s no longer gambling. You’re just doing the math on cost vs return to see if there is enough value to offset the cost. If it’s worth it mathematically then it’s just a matter of buying enough.
Here’s what it looks like over time. If you are farming a 20% drop rate item that costs 1400 crystals to get fully crafted...
Buying 3x150 refreshes will get you 52.5 fully crafted items per year.
Saving 1400 crystals and buying them gets you 39.1 fully crafted items per year.
So you get an extra 13 full items for free in a year by knowing the math, and not getting panicked by occasional bad runs.
