About these bonus drops...

"EventineElessedil;c-1543788" wrote:
This thread is what happens when people who don't understand probability think that they understand probability.

You complain about the drop rate and then say you are not discussing drop rate. Ok then.

The simple truth is that you do not know how the bonus drops were implemented, none of us do, so all we can do is draw upon empirical evidence. For you, it would seem bonus drops are impossible. Bummer, dude. Well, that's probability for you.

The problem, is that you don't understand the difference in statistics and probability. I'm not talking about a statistically based proposal in which I am theorizing a new drop rate based on a sample. I'm talking about the factual probability of obtaining zero successes in a trial of 24 attempts at 30% chance of success per attempt. That probability is roughly one in 5,000. And that, like it or not, is a fact.

Of course I don't know how the drops were implemented. That's the point.... I'm implying that's it's not a simple independent series of chances in which a single run has 4 independent 'chances of success' for a node's shard, and three separate bonus drops.

Put your condescension on hold until you learn what you're talking about.

"Firebrigade;c-1543759" wrote:
I had one run where I received bonus shards for all 3, so it appears I can confirm it’s not an either/or situation.

Also, where did they state the 30% drop rate? I know that’s what they’ve stated for normal hard node drops, but I never saw them state that for bonus shards.

If I had to guess I would bet the bonus shard drop was something more like 10% per character, for a total of 30% bonus drop chance.

Under that assumption, your first example of zero drops on 8 runs (.7^8) 0.058 or 5.8% or 1 in ~17 attempts. That certainly seems reasonable to me, and anecdotally seems to match what I experienced.

Thank you thank you for actually being a part of the conversation. I'm assuming that the events are independent, and that your chance of receiving any given bonus shard is independent of the rest, with each run having 3 chances at shards. So I'm considering it 24 attempts, rather than 8. Thus postulating that we're looking at (.7^24) 0.0002 or 0.02%

That's just an assumption for the calculation. As has been stated, we don't know what those chances are, or how they're handling an individual run.