Forum Discussion
6 years ago
The drop rate for shards is fixed, at about one in three on a fair die.
This is a relatively uncommon randomization model in video games because humans react badly to fair dice. They're swingy buggers. But long term, luck is a myth and it more or less balances out, within a reasonable margin of error.
4 in 50 shards is a bad run to be sure, but it's just that. A bad run. The drop rate is still one in three.
If you have doubts about the drop rate, track it long term. And well before you have a statistically relevant data set, you'll have maxed all the characters you were tracking.
This is a relatively uncommon randomization model in video games because humans react badly to fair dice. They're swingy buggers. But long term, luck is a myth and it more or less balances out, within a reasonable margin of error.
4 in 50 shards is a bad run to be sure, but it's just that. A bad run. The drop rate is still one in three.
If you have doubts about the drop rate, track it long term. And well before you have a statistically relevant data set, you'll have maxed all the characters you were tracking.
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