Change, rise or another thing for DROPRATE !

I do find it funny though. I never see a thread about the days when people hit shards on 4/5 simulations.

"Nasdadjr;c-1903689" wrote:
Wait... This guy is mad because people who started earlier rule the game. Isn't that the way it is supposed to be?

You compete with people at your same start date (arena) or same(ish) GP (GAC). There's no "older people rule the game."

There might be some bad streak, but if you're like me and have one lasting for 3 months, good luck then.
I'm still way off the 30% or so drop rate for Juhani and Carth (finally done with other OR toons and ships for MF at an average of 19%).
At this pace, I'll get Carth right when DR will show up next, and yes I'm using at least one refresh a day on his node.

@Panzer

That s u x, and I wish it wasn't happening to you.

I hope you understand that I can have a great deal of sympathy with folks going through such dry spells even while I think it's silly that some people can't seem to understand that "random" means you can't tell from your personal experience whether or not they've changed the drop rate.

The dry spell is yucky and worthy of sympathy. The inability to understand the word "random" isn't.

Best of luck going forward.

I have given up on arena PO because without DR, it is nearly impossible to reach top 20 whales kingdom unless you're "lucky" with JKR (the two guys consistently reaching 1st with JKR are beating full DR/Malak g12+ and now some with g13. If you ask me, I think they are cheating most likely, but as they don't mess with other people PO, nobody seems to care... and that's another topic).
If it wasn't for my guild mates, I would have quit already.
The funny thing is when you try to reach up and claim your drop rate is insanely low though you have data supporting your claim, people call you a liar. Anyway, I'll get DR/Malak eventually when they won't be meta anymore, or I will be way behind the whales for gear by that time.
The game itself is poorly managed and whoever are in charge just don't care about f2p (why would they anyway?).
My progression is slow due to the lack of crystals, but the guild I'm in is doing its best and I want to help as much as I can for them to reach their goal.

"YaeVizsla;c-1903318" wrote:
The drop rate for shards is fixed, at about one in three on a fair die.

This is a relatively uncommon randomization model in video games because humans react badly to fair dice. They're swingy buggers. But long term, luck is a myth and it more or less balances out, within a reasonable margin of error.

4 in 50 shards is a bad run to be sure, but it's just that. A bad run. The drop rate is still one in three.

If you have doubts about the drop rate, track it long term. And well before you have a statistically relevant data set, you'll have maxed all the characters you were tracking.

The rates change literally all the time.

"nabokovfan;c-1905832" wrote:

"YaeVizsla;c-1903318" wrote:
The drop rate for shards is fixed, at about one in three on a fair die.

This is a relatively uncommon randomization model in video games because humans react badly to fair dice. They're swingy buggers. But long term, luck is a myth and it more or less balances out, within a reasonable margin of error.

4 in 50 shards is a bad run to be sure, but it's just that. A bad run. The drop rate is still one in three.

If you have doubts about the drop rate, track it long term. And well before you have a statistically relevant data set, you'll have maxed all the characters you were tracking.

The rates change literally all the time.

What? When? How?

"MasterSeedy;c-1906143" wrote:
@jhbuchholz

I just ran a bunch of trials like this and it's true. I'd do one sim at a time and the drop rate changed wildly, from 0% to 100% and nothing in between.

That's good data. Now try simming light side normal nodes in batches of 20 and let us know what the shard drip rate is.

With enough data we'll prove that CG is turning the knobs!

I just posted about the same thing, I'm getting extremely frustrated and demoralized by the amount of energy and crystals I use and it only results in 1 shard drop or worse, I get 0 shards alot!!! There is so much to this game now, you gotta get the ☆ lvl up, then the toon itself needs to be lvld up to 85, then the ability mats, then you gotta get all those gear salvage pieces which takes for ever just to gear up a single toon nevermind a whole squad of toons and then to top it all off you need good mods and the necessary slicing materials to create 6dot mods, c'mon man that's a lotta, lotta friggen work, so plz, plz, plz they gotta do something to improve the drop rate so we can get back to enjoying the game as opposed to it always feeling like panic farming!

"Nasdadjr;c-1903692" wrote:
I do find it funny though. I never see a thread about the days when people hit shards on 4/5 simulations.

I hit 4/5 yesterday, it's happened often enough that I stopped screen shotting it.