So, let's be clear, Tier 1 of Hard Mode is only better in 2 places:
1: it gets 200,000 more credits, which **in credits** is the same as 2x the progress rewards that we got between going up a reward crate. But of course, if you only get the 1st reward crate, you're getting many fewer progress rewards, so you're losing more credits than you're gaining. Maybe as many as 500,000, but probably less than that. Still, it's a net loss. I'm not saying that a day's worth of GW credits is a big deal, but just trying to be honest about what the rewards are and aren't.
2. It gets 10 more signal data of the medium-type (not the hardest to get, not the easiest to get).
So though the single crate is better in two ways, net credits would actually be down, and the final benefit isn't that big a deal. There are also other things besides credits in the progress rewards, and you're losing those without any more of the same put in the rewards crate to even partially offset the loss (as with credits).
I think that it's more fair to say that the first tier reward crate amounts to the "same" rewards as earning max rewards on Normal Mode, not "better". It might not even be that good, but without some more specific info about currency accumulation & the jawa merchant & such, "same" is probably the fairest we can say. Certainly not better, and while possibly it will turn out to be slightly worse, we can't say for sure it would be worse either. Toss up is the best we can do.
Again, i'm not trying to deter people from giving it a go, especially if they already got max rewards in Normal Mode. If you're creative and skilled enough to get max rewards with a 3.1M gp roster, then I really like your chances to hit that first crate in Hard Mode.
That said, let's not go around saying the minimum rewards are better. I think it paints a misleading picture of total rewards earned since it omits progress rewards as well as currency rewards that you can use to buy g12 gear. It doesn't say the Crate gives you less g12 gear, but we know you won't earn as much currency along your road if you only reach the first crate, so you'll get less g12 gear from the jawa merchant.
On top of that, and we can't know this yet, but we have to consider it, it might be worse in one important respect: RazorCrest blueprints. Remember that in addition to the box, you get currency which you can spend along the way. They say that they forgot that this time, but next time it will ONLY be available on Normal Mode in Sector 5. They haven't said anything about Hard Mode, but if the opportunity to purchase blueprints only occurs in Sector 5, then people who are only qualifying for the 1st reward box aren't going to get a chance to buy those blueprints.
So, go crazy with optimism when picking your Mode next time, but let it be clear-eyed optimism: The rewards you earn from the first crate are very slightly better, but other rewards will almost certainly be worse, so it should be Crate 2 or Bust for all of us optimists.