Crippled Drop Rates?

"Wookiebush;c-1840585" wrote:

What are you farming in cantina right now that’s currently in a “critical time”? I wasn’t aware of this being a critical time for any farming anywhere in the game.

People who don’t understand statistics and base their opinions on feelings instead of data also won’t change the fact that things are what they are.

Critical toons and times are toons required for events leading up to when the event starts. My numbers come from farming mission for the revan event starting at the end of April, and others have made similar claims about drop rates lowering the month before an event.

Lol you think they are worried about people that are still farming for the third iteration of an event for a character that’s been out for 6 months?

I’m well aware that others have made similar claims. That nonsense gets posted here all the time and is never backed up by actual data.

"Wookiebush;c-1840564" wrote:
First off, I put 11% because I didn’t feel like putting the 11.52whatever that it calculated out to. Second, you don’t get to continue shifting the goal posts and changing the required time someone should record data. 3 weeks is sufficient time to calculate an average, sorry if you don’t like that. Third, lowering the drop rate of a critical character at a critical time has the intention of pressuring players to spend money. Raising drop rates during non critical times or of non-critical players so that everything averages out in the long run is not balanced RNG, it is predatory development. EA is a predatory company that uses predatory tactics and has 100% earned their title of Worst Company in America (two years in a row by the way). So hem and haw and deny all you want. You and the handful of others who feel like reality denial is a solution to problems won’t change the fact that things are what they are.

We're aware of the conspiracy theory.

Nobody has ever actually provided properly tracked, statistically significant data to support what you're saying.

Many tests have been done, over many periods of time. They have never indicated what you suggest. That's not being in denial. That's math.

There are always conspiracy theorists saying CG stealth lowers drop rates because EA is evil. But never any good, solid data for it. Yet there is often good data for the consistent 1/3. Three weeks from one person, a three figure data set, is not enough to debunk the five, six, seven figure data sets saying it's one in three.

The only "data" we've seen has dubious recording and no number of attempts attached.

"Wookiebush;c-1840474" wrote:
I’ve had a roughly 11% drop rate for the month of april on cantina. So far that’s 19 days worth of data. You telling me I’m going to make up the other 19% in 11 days? Because that’s not happening.

Statistics do not normalize, least of all over narrow time frames. They dilute, over extended periods of time. A one in three chance is a one in three chance. Which means in a relatively narrow span- like three weeks- it absolutely can roll worse than one in three, because it's random and every roll is independent.

Galaxy of Heroes uses actual randomness. (Or pseudorandomness, as there is no true random number generator, but close enough for government work.) Actual randomness feels nonrandom to humans, partly because we biologically suck at statistics, and partly because a lot of games do not use actual randomness. They use self-normalizing randomness or they're non-random. So if you miss, your odds of hitting next time go up to force you back to the designated 33%, or if you act, a bar behind the scenes increments 33% so that you'll get the event one time in three. Either because true randomness feels wrong to humans, or simply generates a less stable and more scummable play state than the designers would prefer.

Galaxy of Heroes does not do that. And yes, it feels wrong. Because dice are not predictable in the way we want them to be.

I went 14/15 on Sion over the past 2 days. Sorry I stole all your luck.

An update 3 days later. I've been keeping exact track of what i've been getting. I did my first set for sunday 4/21, and since i've been keeping track, i'm 4/55 on badstilla, 2/25 on carth, and 2/20 on juhani. Coincidentally that adds up to exactly 100 sims, from which i've gotten 8 shards. 8 lousy percent.

I can understand one off day, but to have a run of days this bad is ludicrous. And this is just since i started keeping track of it to prove to myself I wasn't imagining things. It was like that for several days before i started keeping track.

It seriously has me considering just quitting the game entirely. If they're going to cripple the drop rates that bad, then why would i bother? I'm averaging less than a shard a day on everyone. We can round that up to 1, and i'm still not going to spend another 6 months getting the 140 - 160ish remaining shards i need for each of them.

"MasterSeedy;c-1839828" wrote:

I got 0 shards for Jango yesterday and today as well as 0 Wicket shards today and 0 shards for Embo something definitely is up that has never happened to me before it's ****

Exactly. This is how RNG works: You always get the average shards and you never get a run of bad luck. Lots of shards? You got good luck. No shards? Obviously a conspiracy to change the drop rate without telling anyone, because what is RNG if not completely, utterly dependable?

I mean, that complete dependability in providing minimum rewards is why they call it RNG, right?

That would imply that on average, for every 0/5 set you get, you'll get a 2/5 at some point to make up for that. You know how many of those i've gotten since the "change"? Zero. I had tough runs when it was 8 per day (not including refreshes), but generally it got made up for (conveniently after i buy additional sets of sims for crystals). Since the change, that has not happened. I'd literally have to get 40 of my next 100 just to come close to getting back to 25%. I'm relatively certain that will not happen.

I'm not the only guild member who has noticed this. I've seen this comment from at least 7 to 8 people who are farming for darth revan.

You telling me I’m going to make up the other 19% in 11 days? Because that’s not happening.

Correct. Dice have no memory. Your next 100 attempts are highly likely to drop 25-38 shards no matter what happened in your last hundred attempts. RNG does not "make up for" fewer drops than you expected. Nor does it penalize you for a run of good luck. It's R. N. G.

"YaeVizsla;c-1842085" wrote:

"frackme_21;c-1842075" wrote:
I'm not the only guild member who has noticed this. I've seen this comment from at least 7 to 8 people who are farming for darth revan.

And who do you think comments on the forums; the people who are having average to good luck, or the people who are getting terrible luck?

Coming onto the forums and seeing other people who have had bad luck is not evidence.

What kind of idiot looks at hundreds of people making the same claim and discredits every one of them in favor of a handful of people that claim they have tracked it? Your denial is strong.

Less attempts equals less shards

This only pertains to zeta’s. That’s the real conspiracy.

I’ve noticed less shards but roughly same %. Until about 2 days ago when the % went down close to 0!!!