Drop Rate Reality

"Zen;121769" wrote:

"Triqui;121710" wrote:

"Zen;121568" wrote:

"Triqui;121477" wrote:

"Zen;121466" wrote:

Do all the calculations you want, it's evident that the majority of people(including myself) are noticing a decrease. I don't need to convince anyone of that.

It is not evident. There are 5 million players in the game. The majority needs to be above 2.5 milliond, and we dont have 2.5 million forum users.

You are using your personal experience and using it to conclude that the majority, who hasnt voiced their opinion, agree with you.

It is called fallacy of hasty generalization

So nothing has changed and so many people have just become deluded about the drop rates this week? Fair enough.

Exactly.
We are 5 million players. As drops are random, 1% of them are going to be incredibly lucky, and 1% of them are going to be incredibly unlucky. That is a mathemathical fact. Unavoidable. Drops will draw a Bell Distribution, and some will be highly above or highly below average.

That's FIFTY THOUSAND PEOPLE who is incredibly unlucky. Just need 1 in THOUSAND to come to the forums to claim the drop este has been nerfed, and you will have 50 threads about it.

If you put 5/million guys to toss coins, 50 of them will come here to claim that coin toss percentwge has been nerfed, and it is no longer a 50%.

We'll have to agree to disagree then