Forum Discussion

10 years ago

Drop Rate Reality

For everyone going for Jedi I have only got 4 Mace shards in the past 3 days. It should be obvious that they lowered the drop rates on purpose to get us to get desperate & buy the 60$ ripoff of a bund...

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CaptainTriqui

10 years ago

"DaysOfYore;122327" wrote:

In Vegas, I saw red come up 11 times in a row on roulette. Then 2 black. Then 10 more red.

In Monte Carlo Casino in 1913, the ball fell on black 26 times in a row, bankrupting a lot of people who bet red "because it has to even out". That started what is called Monte Carlo's fallacy or Gambler's Fallacy, which (and I quote) "is the erroneous belief that small samples must be representative of the larger population. According to the fallacy, "streaks" must eventually even out in order to be representative"

A couple of wikipedia links to the very interesting theme of congitivie bias, heuristic thought, the gambler's fallacy, and why our brain is the biggest lier we can find:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gambler%27s_fallacy#Origins
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Representativeness_heuristic
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hasty_generalization

I'm pretty sure you know all of this, btw. But I think I'm going to use your post as an entry point to leave the links there. Maybe someone is interested in reading them and understand why they are frustrated by drop rates