Forum Discussion
8 years ago
Bollocks. Those 9 runs without salvage I was talking about? They just become 15.
But to put that in perspective, assuming a 0.2 chance of a drop, there's still a 3.5% chance of such a run happening, and with the amount of sims we all do for gear, such a run is bound to happen. And be noticeable. Whereas the almost equivalent chance (still assuming a 0.2 chance) of two salvage dropping in a row (4%) seems completely unremarkable.
Psychology sucks :P
E: actually, I'm not quite sure they are equivalent. My statistics is a bit shakey here, but given a long chain of actions you'd probably also have to take into account how many sequences may occur. And there are far far far more 2-sequences than 15-sequences. So starting from 0, your chance of hitting 2 salvages in a row is only slightly higher than higher than hitting 15 shots of nada, but in a long chain of actions, it should be easier to find a sequence (any sequence) of 2 salvages in a row than a 15-sequence of nothing?
If I got this right, then given a chain of X actions, the number of 2-sequences are X - 1, whereas the number of 15-sequences is X-15. So your chance of finding a 2-sequence is: 1 - 0.96^(X - 1), whereas your chance of finding a 15-sequence of no salvage is 1 - 0.965^(X-15). So it clearly depends on the size of X. If X is large enough, then the influence of X is negligible (the chance trends to 1, of course, in the infinite), but if we look for something like X=100, then we have a 98% chance of getting a 2-sequence with 2 stun gun salvages, and a 95% of having any 15-sequence with 0 salvages, which is a noticeable difference (albeit not really to the human running those 100 sims, because human perception of chance sucks).
But to put that in perspective, assuming a 0.2 chance of a drop, there's still a 3.5% chance of such a run happening, and with the amount of sims we all do for gear, such a run is bound to happen. And be noticeable. Whereas the almost equivalent chance (still assuming a 0.2 chance) of two salvage dropping in a row (4%) seems completely unremarkable.
Psychology sucks :P
E: actually, I'm not quite sure they are equivalent. My statistics is a bit shakey here, but given a long chain of actions you'd probably also have to take into account how many sequences may occur. And there are far far far more 2-sequences than 15-sequences. So starting from 0, your chance of hitting 2 salvages in a row is only slightly higher than higher than hitting 15 shots of nada, but in a long chain of actions, it should be easier to find a sequence (any sequence) of 2 salvages in a row than a 15-sequence of nothing?
If I got this right, then given a chain of X actions, the number of 2-sequences are X - 1, whereas the number of 15-sequences is X-15. So your chance of finding a 2-sequence is: 1 - 0.96^(X - 1), whereas your chance of finding a 15-sequence of no salvage is 1 - 0.965^(X-15). So it clearly depends on the size of X. If X is large enough, then the influence of X is negligible (the chance trends to 1, of course, in the infinite), but if we look for something like X=100, then we have a 98% chance of getting a 2-sequence with 2 stun gun salvages, and a 95% of having any 15-sequence with 0 salvages, which is a noticeable difference (albeit not really to the human running those 100 sims, because human perception of chance sucks).
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