From what I have seen math-wise (I didn't do it myself), it appears most people would make better rewards under this system, with some higher participation needed, which is how games work - No participation = No reward. We will see the reality of it at end of episode/era, and I won't complain about the balance until then, if needed. I don't think it is that bad though.
The problem with this release is that it has a bunch of content that is obviously behind a paywall, which makes it feel like you are being left out. Yes, I do understand that the intent is to entice players to buy the pass, but it would be better if the content was available to everyone, even if it's with small rewards, and just give bigger rewards for those with the pass. This would appear less greedy than what we currently see, which is god for the game moral.
If you are f2p and considering spending some money, you are not going to start paying monthly for the pass, since LS bundles are a way better deal. If you are a paying customer already, getting the pass will likely be a good choice compared to buying the shard packs and whatever you used to do before.