Forum Discussion

Reesei's avatar
Reesei
Seasoned Newcomer
2 years ago

February squish - we're under 2k in kyber 1! We... win?

The squish formula hasn't changed since at least last November, and kyber 1 is steadily shrinking. We're down under 2000 this month (1998 players in kyber1 in week 2 of the Feb 2023 season). When does it stop?

Figures:
- Squish compiled across leagues and divisions from November 2022 to February 23 (note: just did ~10-15 players in Jan Feb to confirm they fell on the same lines as previous months; Nov and Dec were the biggest data pulls. I have 278 data points represented here.)

- Raw player numbers in kyber1 over time. As the months went on we started collecting information every week rather than just once a month to see the shape. You can see that players do move back into kyber1 through banner drift, but not enough to make up for the squish each month. This demonstrates that the squish formula is flawed for this division.
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  • I’m not sure the problem is bad maths but rather good maths being used for a flawed reason.

    As a thought experiment- what if there was no squish at all? We can speculate that the ladder would get a bit top heavy over time (mitigated of course by new players) but if that genuinely ever presented any problem, there’s always the option to create a legendary league with a new cut off (& so on ad infinitum). On current evidence, however, this doesn’t look like a huge problem.

    Any algorithm will have unintended consequences- doubly so if the underlying thinking about desired outcomes is a bit muddy. Personally I trust the player base to regulate the ladder through competition more than I trust CG’s maths - and I love the fact they seem to be spending a bit more time going after cheaters so why not let them concentrate on that and we can have a cleaner competition?
  • wharp95's avatar
    wharp95
    Seasoned Newcomer
    CG is preparing the Kyber battlepass:

    You didn't buy the battlepass, you are demoted to Aurudium
  • It's still February and they have not unexpectedly made no changes to the squish formula for this 3v3 season.
  • Morgoth_swgoh's avatar
    Morgoth_swgoh
    Seasoned Newcomer
    We are all eagerly awaiting to see population in K1. Should be well below 2.000 players at this point.
  • MasterSeedy's avatar
    MasterSeedy
    Seasoned Hotshot
    Hopefully.

    Not holding my breath, of course, but rebellions are built on hope.
  • For historical accuracy, we have just finished 3v3 and have a week before entering 5v5 and there's not even been an acknowledgment of the squish to date through official channels.
  • For historical purposes the September 5v5 squish is unchanged. There has also not been any official announcements or acknowledgments of its impact.