Forum Discussion

3 years ago

GAC draw results unfair for lower GP

Defaulting the victory to the higher GP in the result of a draw is completely unfair. If anything, the fact that the lower GP can achieve the same score with less potential resources shows that t...

pvp

notthatguybefore

Seasoned Ace

3 years ago

"GegeGerard24;c-2411079" wrote:

I am not a mathematician, but i think others who are can support me.
But firstly, i am sorry if i am wrong in this.

I’m not a mathematician, but I am a PhD in astrophysics who works with Bayesian statistics. Sooo….

You are wrong in this mathematically. You are assuming that because there are two outcomes both are equally likely. This is logically careless and ignores the underlying assumptions about how likely the options are given that the player has dropped that low (and that’s an important factor for the prior).

I would actually estimate that a thorough probabilistic analysis would show that the chance of you winning in such a scenario is above 50% if you were to appropriately determine the factors leading to a 6m GP player dropping to that level.