Forum Discussion

3 years ago

GAC draw results unfair for lower GP

Defaulting the victory to the higher GP in the result of a draw is completely unfair. If anything, the fact that the lower GP can achieve the same score with less potential resources shows that t...

pvp

notthatguybefore

Seasoned Ace

3 years ago

"GegeGerard24;c-2411094" wrote:
"Notthatguyfrombefore;c-2411091" wrote:

I would actually estimate that a thorough probabilistic analysis would show that the chance of you winning in such a scenario is above 50% if you were to appropriately determine the factors leading to a 6m GP player dropping to that level.

I win = i met an opponent with higher GP AND he doesn't attack me.

How do you count that probability?

By looking at their GAC history over the period of time from the implementation of the new GAC system to now, and appropriately accounting for their activity if they join a GAC bracket, their activity relative to opponent GP and roster, and possibly depending on seasonal trends as well. Of course this would need to be marginalised over probabilities for GP brackets in GAC divisions, but basically there's more factors at play than just raw GP.

Simply saying there's two outcomes and so both are equally likely at 50% is just mathematically lazy.