GAC draw results unfair for lower GP

"GegeGerard24;c-2411115" wrote:

"Notthatguyfrombefore;c-2411106" wrote:

Except that there isn't necessarily a 50% chance of either happening.

Example: I roll a die and there are two outcomes. Either it lands on six or it doesn't land on six , but as you can appreciate the chance of it landing on a 6 is not 50%.

So, when i roll a die, it will either land on six or it wont and i agree, the chance of landing on 6 is not 50%.
Because there are other possibilities, they are 1, 2, 3, 4 and 5.

So, the chance of landing on six = 1/6
And the chance of not landing on six = 5/6

And the chance of winning the lottery is 1/(how many lotteries have been sold) (i guess).
It is not 50% (either i win or not) because there are other possibilities, they are lottery No 000,000,000,001 until idk, lottery number 100.000.000.000. Between these numbers, some 99,888,777,666 lottery are sold...so the chance of winning my 1 lottery is 1/99,888,777,666.

So, what are other possibilities that would be presented when i click that button other than "higher GP" and "same/lower GP"?

And what other possibilities would be presented other than "the higher GP attacks" and "he doesn't"?

Either way...the chance of lower GP will win against higher GP is above 50% is just counter logic.

But your argument is flawed by the assumption that there is a 50/50 chance that they play based on the premise that they can play or not. The factors affecting win/loss in GAC are very complex and so winning/losing or simple participation are not 50% options, that's what you seem to be ignoring or not understanding.

If the chance that they play, against a player with your GP given that they've dropped that far (and that's the important bit), is only 10% then you have a 90% chance of winning against such a player. Not all outcomes are equally likely, and that's what you seem to be missing.

I'm not sure I can find another way of explaining this.