Introducing Pack Probabilities [MEGA]

"Warp3dM1nd;c-1639893" wrote:
Yet nothing but silence. They will have to be forced to show us. They don't have a choice unless they are trying artificially raise the rates to make it look like they are giving a fair chance but if they are **** enough to do that then they really will be in trouble for fraudulent practices. The report that the group I put together has already been forwarded to Google.

I had my mom type it up since she teaches business and statistics so it's not some half illiterate piece of work. It is documented every step of the way with pictures before and after so nobody (CG/EA) can cry false. It clearly shows the drop percents for shards in Hard Nodes, Cantina, Ship, and even the high value gear on the nodes.

Outside of a few Cantina runs the drop rate was 10% to 15% on 5x run less if toon and ship is on same node. Now with the introduction of 8x that number dropped down to roughly 6%. So yeah they pulled the classic bait and switch. " Oh look guys we increased the amount of node runs!" While laughing behind the scenes that the drop percentages haven't changed so all it did was increase their crystal inflow which equals money.

They appease most of the masses who thinks it's a good thing while the small minority of us realized it just made matters worse without them increasing the actually shard drop percentage.

Could you provide some of the numbers and data you came up with for Cantina? And maybe share your statistics, sample size, and observations so we can understand the quality of the data?

I documented exactly 4001 cantina sims for the probailities of shards and ability mats across all energy costs and graphed their distributions in excel and came up with very consistent drop rates over the course of several months. Cantina shard drop rates across hundreds of sims from 8, 10, 12, and 16 energy cost nodes fell between 29.19-33.39% with an average of 32.32%. I don’t have extended data on hard nodes but I know it is lower than Cantina. I can provide details on ability mat drop rates if people are interested or want to see the hard data. Interesting observation from the data is that 16 energy nodes in Cantina drop purple mats drop at approximately 12x the rate (26.67%) vs. 8 energy nodes (2.23%). Shard drop rates appear to be (and likely are) consistent across all costs, although I would be hesitant to set that in stone as I know my sample size is still too small to model the rng distribution function with complete accuracy.