Retreat Mechanics

I have a word for you: stochasticity

when i'm trying to escape a team because i want to die without doing anymore damage, i usually am able to escape more than 1 character. Granted, i don't really pay attention because dying is just as good as escaping for me personally, but it seems closer to 40% than 15% in my experience.

"Man_Uel;c-1195873" wrote:
I have a word for you: stochasticity

I'm sorry but the data cannot be explained away with a simple attribution to RNG. A look at the variance and the resulting standard deviation does not support a 40% baseline. As the N of these data sets approaches 1000 margin of error will be in the +/- 5% range. It would be highly improbable that multiple data sets are all outliers. Assuming the trend in the data continues, there are two logical explanations:

1) The retreat mechanics are functioning as intended returning a real value of 15% (or whatever the end result shows) per attempt. If so the in game messaging is in error and should be treated as a bug and corrected.

2) The retreat mechanics are not functioning as intended, and there is a technical bug, rather than messaging bug.

"leef;c-1195911" wrote:
when i'm trying to escape a team because i want to die without doing anymore damage, i usually am able to escape more than 1 character. Granted, i don't really pay attention because dying is just as good as escaping for me personally, but it seems closer to 40% than 15% in my experience.

Leef what is the N of your current data set and did any of the trials involve Zylo? Thanks.

Don't forget that if your escape attempt fails and you use retreat, you will reenter the battle with the same RNG seed. I you don't change anything on your attack run, you will get the same result on the escape attempt.
So, not all data is valid - the number of "fail" may easily be overestimated.

"Ambassador;c-1197376" wrote:
Don't forget that if your escape attempt fails and you use retreat, you will reenter the battle with the same RNG seed. I you don't change anything on your attack run, you will get the same result on the escape attempt.
So, not all data is valid - the number of "fail" may easily be overestimated.

An excellent point! This could easily be a skew. I will need to cull the data sets to account for this...

"Ambassador;c-1197376" wrote:
Don't forget that if your escape attempt fails and you use retreat, you will reenter the battle with the same RNG seed. I you don't change anything on your attack run, you will get the same result on the escape attempt.
So, not all data is valid - the number of "fail" may easily be overestimated.

Pretty sure the RNG seed is only fixed for GW, not raids.

"thelebk;c-1197323" wrote:

"leef;c-1195911" wrote:
when i'm trying to escape a team because i want to die without doing anymore damage, i usually am able to escape more than 1 character. Granted, i don't really pay attention because dying is just as good as escaping for me personally, but it seems closer to 40% than 15% in my experience.

Leef what is the N of your current data set and did any of the trials involve Zylo? Thanks.

i'm not tracking data, mainly because it seemed to be around 40% when playing so i didn't feel the need to track my succesrate with escaping.