RNG? I think not

"Nikoms565;948628" wrote:

"Tharivol;948566" wrote:

"Nikoms565;948522" wrote:

"Exletion;948301" wrote:

"HorishBathens;948285" wrote:

"Nikoms565;947694" wrote:
OP - Google "Occam's Razor"

Occam's razor doesn't apply here

It can apply,

"If you have two theories that both explain the observed facts, then you should use the simplest until more evidence comes along"
"The simplest explanation for some phenomenon is more likely to be accurate than more complicated explanations."
"If you have two equally likely solutions to a problem, choose the simplest."
"The explanation requiring the fewest assumptions is most likely to be correct."

The simplest explanation is that the drops are random according to the most common form, a Gaussian distribution, and people don't like it when they get bad drops.

This. What's the simpler of the two :
1) Randomness (occasionally subject to bad runs)

2) A dynamic drop rate which analyzes your roster, gear and character shard needs, spending habits, previously farmed and/or purchased gear, gear salvages or character shards, which then lowers probability as you get closer to whatever "goal" the algorithm has decided you are shooting for.

Occam's Razor suggests that option 1 is more likely. By virtue of the fact that 2 is much more complex, in fact, Occam's Razor would suggest that option 1 is almost a certainty over 2.

1. While Occam's Razor apply here, it doesn't mean that you can't investigate other choices further, and this topic evolved into it already. (After OP suggested that there is no way to know)
2. We are not talking about a system that "tracks" and "analyzes" our habbits, characters, gears, farms.. We are simply talking about if there can be a code to lower drop chances when a Gear is about to be completed, or a Character is about to level it's star.
- MK2 Zaltin Bacta gel requires 20, so when you are at 18-19 the drop chance automatically can reduce,
- Mk 3 Czerka Stun Cuffs require 50 parts, so when you are at let's say 45+, the drop chance reduce,
- Every character needs 10-15-25-30-65-85-100 shards to level a star, so when you are close to those numbers, the drop chance again can reduce,
that is based on the theory, which is infinitely simpler than what you are trying to suggest (game analyzing our habbits etc etc.) and infinitely easier to code as well.
(5% close to completion of a piece, drop chance becomes x%)

Countless people came up with the exact theory, in different times, in different places, (and to be honest it is not about just this game either) and there can be only 2 options to:
1. Drop rates are always same, but when people get bad RNG close to finishing an item/a character they realize it even more, which translates to "Selective Perception"
2. There really can be some sort of mechanic to cause this, which is not very hard to make either (certainly not harder than sorting drop chances for white/gold/purple items), and a quite legit marketing strategy.
Hence you are "much more likely" to spend crystal to refresh your energy if you have 49/50 Stun Cuffs and especially if that's the single last piece of gear to get your Maul to G11 for example, or you are at 98/100 shards on an important character and you can't get any drops, again you are much more likely to spend crystals to refresh energy to get that last pieces, than if you were on 1/100 shards. (Same with Shoretrooper or Baze from Shipments as well)

As in those lines, both are a probability. But option 2 is an assumption therefore Occam's Razor apply here. But it doesn't mean that we can't discuss it, or can't share our experiences, or even make some sort of test here by using everyone's data. (Almost all game-based calculations on Reddit are made through Data provided by the commentors)

And virtually all data that has ever been tracked suggests that drop rates are constant and consistent.

And that's your assumption. You have no solid data or any info whatsoever about it. Since no one has ever tested this exact theory. Yes they tested drop chances generally and on average came up with a close number, but this is entirely different.