Shard drop rate is toooooo low :(

"GegeGerard24;c-2393964" wrote:

"crzydroid;c-2393959" wrote:

So if you're getting 55 a day from GAC, that means you are in Carbonite 5. If you get even to Carbonite 1, that is 20 more crystals a day right there. If you are brand new that is one thing. But don't claim to speak to all f2p. Plenty of f2p are in Kyber and finish at the top of their fleet payout. They earn 600-700+ crystals a day. They can easily afford refreshes.

F2P in my shoes, in my condition...
Dont talk about kyber with 600-700 crystal a day x_x

Yes...at 25 crystal per refresh and so much things (sold in crystals) to buy in the shipment...i wonder if an F2P player (again, in my shoes) would waste his crystals in unsure/uncertain attempt in nodes.

Sure, in your shoes, at the start of the game, refreshing character nodes would seem daunting. But a lot of people would be expected to advance and grow and many have. So my comments were more a response to what seemed like a blanket statement about "f2p." People mean a lot of different things when they say "f2p" on this site. Mostly, it seems they mean "me." There are a lot of f2p in this game at different stages of progress. Back when arena was more important and the game was more meta-driven, the only way for an f2p to get in on the new meta during the first run of the event was to refresh nodes multiple times. So it is very possible.

And not to beat a dead horse about the math(s), but the 33% drop rate, as others have pointed out, refers to the chance of dropping a shard per each attempt. This also amounts to the proportion of successful drops out of any number, N. For an individual sample, x, the chance of a shard is 0.33. So the expected value of shards over N attempts is N*0.33.

Yes, over time, and over individuals, 67% of the total drops are expected to be failures, though this can vary from sample to sample. But that just means that out of 1000 attempts, the expected value of successes is 330. So if you do five a day, that's an average across individuals and character farms of 200 days.

The chance of getting 0 out of 5 is NOT 67%. The porportion of expected failures out of 5 is 67%. 5*0.67 = 3.35 expected failures. Which means 1.65 expected successes, so any random draw from among individuals and across days, we should expect one or two successes out of five. But some of the observations will be different! As pointed out, the chance of exactly 0/5 is 0.67^5 = 13.5%.

You are right that there are six possible outcomes, but rather than the chance of 0 holding at 67% across attempts, the chance of any single outcome (e.g. 0/5) decreases as the number of outcomes increases. And by single here, I mean that there is only one way you can get 0/5, and that is for all attempts to be 0. There are five ways to get 1/5, however. You can have a success on either attempt 1, attempt 2, etc. So the relative odds of 1/5 go up (i.e., is not just 0.33/5).

People have listed the exact probability tables for you, and you were even pointed towards the binomial distribution, which for your convenience is:

(N!/(x!*(N-x)!)*p^x*q^(N-x)

where N is the total number of trials, x is the number of success, and p and q are the odds of success and failure, respectively (where q = 1-p).