So - Exactly how screwed am I? Returning to the game from 2019....

You are relatively close to Jedi master Kenobi and supreme leader Kylo Ren.
Out of those, Kenobi is better, but you would need to have Commander Ahsoka Tano for him to be really good (you can start getting CAT shards from an event called Proving Grounds once a month).
So, I would suggest starting with Kylo Ren, followed by Executor fleet. I think you could have Kylo relatively quickly.
Also, farm some squads for the upcoming Endor Raid (see posts on Dev Announcements) so you can get in a good guild and get important materials.