Zeta Mats (Fleet Shipments vs Ability Challenges)

"Ricter;781160" wrote:

You seem to have 2 factors going on here that I don't think are typical:

You're in an exceptionally competitive shard. I'm sitting at similar Fleet Power (82k) and I get into the top 50 with 4/5 wins (5/5 gets me to around rank 40). I don't even drop out of the top 100 overnight.

You have significantly more blueprints than me, which means you spent a significant amount of crystals on ship packs (I've bought 2 of the big ones and am no where near you on blueprints, and I'm betting most players haven't bought that many). Alternatively you had a large stockpile of GW currency saved to spend on blueprints.


It seems to be that you're a bigger spender than most players or you saved up a bunch of crystals for the release of ships. No judgement - that just means you're not typical. Ditto with the shard competitiveness - I do quite well in arena and was higher level when the ship update landed, which means you must have been even higher - meaning that you're even more of an outlier.

Also, again, a drop in tier prizes isn't that big of a deal. I've shown the math. Even a pretty significant drop for me (and let's be honest, most players for whom this is relevant aren't in the top 50 regularly) shows that this strategy still makes sense.

"Tannjam;781131" wrote:
You're also assuming that the currently released Zeta abilities are going to be the only ones released ever, and you only need to chase one or two to be set. I'm betting that's just a taste.

Not true at all. I'm trading a significant short term gain (a month with 1 Zeta upgrade vs no Zeta upgrade and a month with 2 Zeta upgrades vs 1 Zeta upgrade) for a small amount less of Zeta materials overall (5ish, obviously the math is really volatile). In the end, we'll end up with almost the exact same results - 7* fleets and lots of Zeta mats. You're implying that somehow I'd stop getting Zeta mats or would never upgrade my ships and make up the difference in fleet power, both of which are false.

Also, have you seen Acrofales's post? You're not even going to be able to complete zeta ability challenges - you have the wrong ships.

I bought the $49.99 Light Side Bundle and I bought 3 mega-packs. I didn't spend very significantly in my estimation. I've just put all GW and fleet shipments on blueprints. But again, you're presenting your approach as a cookie-cutter one, and as I mentioned in my first reply - that isn't necessarily going to work under your timeline for people on more competitive shards (like mine).
I know the needs for completing the mats challenge, just because those ships aren't yet in my most powerful team, doesn't mean I'm not working on those ships as well (dark side ones). I have a 2-star Sun Fac ship, and am working on Slave One when it infrequently makes an appearance in fleet shipments. Just to clarify - you need 5x 4* dark ships to complete the challenge to upgrade Tarkin's ship to 5*. To complete the Mats challenge (that awards zetas) you can use any 5* ships with Tarkin as Fleet Commander. I'm not going to neglect the two better F2P ships in the game (Ahsoka, Biggs) just to focus only on dark side ships.

"Tannjam;781250" wrote:

I bought the $49.99 Light Side Bundle and I bought 3 mega-packs. I didn't spend very significantly in my estimation. I've just put all GW and fleet shipments on blueprints. But again, you're presenting your approach as a cookie-cutter one, and as I mentioned in my first reply - that isn't necessarily going to work under your timeline for people on more competitive shards (like mine).

Man, I've tried to be polite with you, but at this point you're just arguing for the sake of arguing. I said in the op that this discussion is for F2P players and dolphins that have gotten less blueprints than me. You're neither of those, so of course it's not the same numbers for you, but I said that in the op!

In fact, F2P players and dolphins are more likely to be in a *less* competitive shard, meaning that dropping rank has a less significant effect for them, making the case for rushing zeta materials even better for them. And the number of F2P players and dolphins in shards less competitive than yours is vast.

"Tannjam;781250" wrote:
I know the needs for completing the mats challenge, just because those ships aren't yet in my most powerful team, doesn't mean I'm not working on those ships as well (dark side ones). I have a 2-star Sun Fac ship, and am working on Slave One when it infrequently makes an appearance in fleet shipments. Just to clarify - you need 5x 4* dark ships to complete the challenge to upgrade Tarkin's ship to 5*. To complete the Mats challenge (that awards zetas) you can use any 5* ships with Tarkin as Fleet Commander. I'm not going to neglect the two better F2P ships in the game (Ahsoka, Biggs) just to focus only on dark side ships.

So what you're saying, really, is that you need even more shards. In that case, you're going to be even farther behind in the Zeta upgrade game and this argument gets stronger, not weaker. Until rushing ships results in more Zeta upgrades for a significant period of time than rushing Zeta mats, it is an inferior strategy.

Rushing zeta mats provides multiple months of having Zeta Upgrade advantages over your opponents, and those advantages are likely to be more valuable than having an extra Zeta Upgrade far down the road.

This also has the significant disadvantage of requiring F2P players to invest in 5 DS characters enough that they can actually complete the challenges AND not lose fleet arena rank by investing in their ships (since they'll have very weak pilots otherwise). Considering only 5 of these were F2P until very recently (and only 1 was good enough for F2P to invest in reliably, GS), rushing ship upgrades makes even less sense.

"Mvnson;781295" wrote:
Richter, you are wrong and are spreading bad information. The smartest players are rushing ships to open the challenges. Google "best way to get Zetas" and watch Smithie D's video. I don't know either of you, but I'll bet my bankroll he's the better player....

If you think that a flashy video disproves math, there's nothing I can do to convince you otherwise. That video provides no evidence nor any numbers to back up his theory.

Furthermore, that video doesn't acknowledge the fact that the strategy of rushing zeta mats will also unlock the challenges (admittedly at a later date). So yes, if you ignore that critical fact, like the video does, the strategy of rushing zeta materials seems unwise.

Haven't watched Smithie's video, but it's worth mentioning that it's hard to find a bigger whale than him, so while he is a great member of the community, his perspective is also different from the majority of the player base.

I am ftp. I am at about 100k power. I stay just under rank 100. But i had 34k gw coins saved. I have been spending them only on blueprints. I think that pushes me towards getting zetas from ability mat challenge.

@Mvnson: At this point you're just trolling. I've provided details you can follow in the OP that show you are incorrect. Either show where my math is wrong or please stop trolling.

"Mvnson;781386" wrote:
It's already been pointed out to you by another post. You cannot farm 5 FTP DS ships in GW. Plus the frequency that The DS ships (tie fighters) appear in GW shipments is far less. You are not going to be able to spend your credits optimally, thus delaying the amount of time you will ultimately get all those ships.

It appears that you can farm 5 dark side ships in Galactic War, at least according the SWGOH Ships Tool google doc (all but Scimitar, Slave I, and Vader's TIE).

What the OP has failed to account for is the issue you raise. In GW, only 3 sets of ship fragments appear at any one time, and it changes every six hours. You are not guaranteed to get even one Dark Side Ship fragment group to show up in any window, although I have seen double Geo Spy ship fragments offered. There are 8 LS ships available in GW, and 5 DS in GW. That would have to be factored into the math.

FS gives you 8 sets, and I think it changes on a weird schedule like 15/3/6. You are not guaranteed to get any set of Dark Side Ship fragments to show up, but the odds are much higher that not only will one set show up, but that multiple sets will. There are 11 LS ships in FS, 7 DS ships in FS.

There you go, a coherent argument. Thank you, now you bring up some good points. Editing in a reply now.

"Mvnson;781403" wrote:
Also, you cannot discount that farming the 5 DS ships in GW includes Sun Fac and Spy. If you don't have those pilots, and no FTP does, even few p2p do, they are worthless.

The OP as FTP must at a minimum make the following adjustments to his formula (he is trying to show spending less on FS for non-Zeta is better), if you assume he has 0 shards of Sun Fac and Geo Spy:

1. Assume that FTP must farm Geo Spy from Cantina Battles.
2. Make a choice: farm Slave I from FS (8000 fleet tokens) OR farm Sun Fac from FS (6400 fleet tokens).

This assumes that a 4 star Sun Fac is good enough to help you win the necessary challenges.

I'm not sure the rarity of Slave I showing up will make much of a difference because it shows up about once a day. OP is talking about a 30+ or near 70 day timeframe. That should work.

Some counter math with multiple scenarios, since this is all hypothetical (estimating daily ranking over a month out, estimating drops of a material that's supposed to be rare but has potentially shown up 75% of the time, etc.)

It should take you 49 days as top 100 to collect all the blueprints you need to access the zeta challenge starting fresh from the tutorial as F2P (so, pretend this is last Tuesday, 9 days ago). This number was calculated using the Ship Acquisition Tool (which automates all that for me).

If you started at top 100, and steadily drop (since you won't be getting half the blueprints/shards that someone staying in top 100 could get), I could see you getting the following payouts:

• 7 days 51-100 = 7 * 1250 = 8750
  
• 14 days 101-200 = 14 * 1200 = 16800
  
• 21 days 201-500 = 21 * 1000 = 21000
  
• 7 days 501+ = 7 * 800 = 5600
  
• 49 days daily activity = 49 * 100(I think this is what it is...it's close to this, anyway) = 4900
  
• Total: 57,050 / 2000 = 28.5 zetas

So now we have to calculate the break-even point from here. Which will be 28.5 + (900/2000)*X = 0 + (1350/2000)*X + (Y/7)*X, where X = number of days to break even and Y = number of zeta mats from challenge you get in a week. No-ships-rush side gets only 800 tokens a day because their fleet is weak and will never be as strong until it hits 6-7* after the others have hit 6-7* long before.

6 total attempts, chance of 0-2 per attempt = 0-12 total zetas possible
50% * 12 = 6
25% * 12 = 3
16.67% * 12 = 2

50%:

• 28.5 + 0.45X = 0.675X + 6/7X
  
• 28.5 = 1.082X
  
• X = 26 days

25%:

• 28.5 + 0.45X = 0.675X + 3/7X
  
• 28.5 = 0.654X
  
• X = 44 days

16.67%:

• 28.5 + 0.45X = 0.675X + 2/7X
  
• 28.5 = 0.511X
  
• X = 56 days

I vote we go for 25% because I think it's a decent compromise (though who knows what zeta drop rate really is). In that case, 44 days after the initial 49 days, both sides will have 46 zetas (just plugged 44 into the break-even equation). So, at 93 days after the launch of ships, both sides will have 2 zeta abilities unlocked (closer to like 85ish days, which we can use so long as it's recognized that a one week lead of 2 to 1 zeta abilities will not be significant). However, after 93 days after launch, the player who pushed zetas from shipments will fall way behind. Another 3 months out from then (since this game is all about the long-game), going out another 87 days:

46 + 0.45(87) = 85 zetas 6 months after release of ships
46 + 0.675(87) + (3/7)(87) = 142 zetas 6 months after release of ships

Yes, if the player who only buys zeta mats can somehow get a competitive edge back and earn higher rewards, then sure, they would speed up a little. But 7 zeta abilities versus 4 is quite the difference, especially considering in 6 months they're likely to release more zeta abilities that we want to get.


*Edit* The zeta shipment player will reach the zeta challenge in basically double the time (cause roughly half the gain, and this even gives the player a free Sun Fac). 49 * 2 = 98 days. So the zeta shipment player, who yes, can get to the zeta challenge strictly from GW, will be 5 days behind the zeta challenge player. Since they are both operating at the same challenge drop rates, but the zeta challenge player gets more fleet tokens, the zeta shipment player will always be behind unless they can make some miraculous recoveries in fleet arena while simultaneously the zeta challenge player falls from grace and face plants on the bottom of fleet arena..