Solved
New expansion won't properly install
Launcher thinks expansion is installed; game thinks it isn't. I recently purchased the Businesses & Hobbies expansion. I installed it, using the usual method of letting it install in the background ...
So it turns out the EA app doesn't uninstall when it uninstalls. It lies when it says it will remove any files at all.
So I uninstalled it from the EA app so the app would know (assuming it keeps that data somewhere), then deleted the files from my computer, then reinstalled it freshly and it worked.
