Scratch and win and the car races and the dog races

"00becker;c-1614674" wrote:

"KrustyBrand;c-1614611" wrote:

"pevh;c-1614564" wrote:
you can find somewhere on the tsto sites that the expected value of playing the dog race is 1000 money whatever option you choose. it wouldn't surprise me if the go-cart race follows suit. them ea programmers aren't stupid.

play the top option. the long run result will be the same but it is the smoothest ride.

Expected values for both Springfield Downs and the Go-Kart Track. The probabilities for winning are taken from the Simpsons wiki.
https://s4.postimg.org/sarxw6c6l/TSTO_SD_KG_EVs.jpg

How did you get your expected value numbers? I've done the calculations myself and my expected values all work out to be really close to the same amount. I'm really interested in where the differences in our calculations came from.

Maths:
2-1 at the dog track, odds are 50% for a win, cost is $2000, win is $6000. So you play twice and win once. Cost for two games is $4000. Purse less cost to play is $6000-$4000=$2000. Average winnings (expected value) is $2000/2=$1000.

5-1 at the dog track, odds are 25% for a win, cost $2000 again, win $12,000. Play four times and win once. Cost for four games is $8000. $12,000-$8000=$4000. $4000/4=$1000. etc. etc.

Without rounding (as in the example) the values are marginally over $1000 for each option, with the last choice (99-1) beating out the others by about $10.

And the Go Karts have even less variation. 9-1 at the Go Karts has a 20% chance for a win. So you play five games and win one of them. Five games cost $5000x5=$25,000. Winnings of $50,000 less cost of $25,000 is $25,000. Average winnings is $25,000/5=$5000. It holds true for every choice. There is more variation in XP payout, but even that's not much.

Overall, playing both games is profitable but which option you go with is irrelevant as all of the choices pay out the same over the long run.

2-1 odds does not mean 50% anything. It means payout of 2$ for 1$ wager PLUS returned wager
Thus, $2000 at 2-1 wins $4000 + $2000 = $6000
Probability of winning is quit differant.

"00becker;c-1614674" wrote:

"KrustyBrand;c-1614611" wrote:

"pevh;c-1614564" wrote:
you can find somewhere on the tsto sites that the expected value of playing the dog race is 1000 money whatever option you choose. it wouldn't surprise me if the go-cart race follows suit. them ea programmers aren't stupid.

play the top option. the long run result will be the same but it is the smoothest ride.

Expected values for both Springfield Downs and the Go-Kart Track. The probabilities for winning are taken from the Simpsons wiki.
https://s4.postimg.org/sarxw6c6l/TSTO_SD_KG_EVs.jpg

How did you get your expected value numbers? I've done the calculations myself and my expected values all work out to be really close to the same amount. I'm really interested in where the differences in our calculations came from.

Maths:
2-1 at the dog track, odds are 50% for a win, cost is $2000, win is $6000. So you play twice and win once. Cost for two games is $4000. Purse less cost to play is $6000-$4000=$2000. Average winnings (expected value) is $2000/2=$1000.

5-1 at the dog track, odds are 25% for a win, cost $2000 again, win $12,000. Play four times and win once. Cost for four games is $8000. $12,000-$8000=$4000. $4000/4=$1000. etc. etc.

Without rounding (as in the example) the values are marginally over $1000 for each option, with the last choice (99-1) beating out the others by about $10.

And the Go Karts have even less variation. 9-1 at the Go Karts has a 20% chance for a win. So you play five games and win one of them. Five games cost $5000x5=$25,000. Winnings of $50,000 less cost of $25,000 is $25,000. Average winnings is $25,000/5=$5000. It holds true for every choice. There is more variation in XP payout, but even that's not much.

Overall, playing both games is profitable but which option you go with is irrelevant as all of the choices pay out the same over the long run.

Sorry if this message comes through twice. (Stupid forum acting up again and seems to have zapped my earlier one...)

I just wanted to note that @00becker was correct about the expected values for the two TSTO minigames and that my earlier calculations posted here were flawed. (Briefly, those earlier calculations neglected to take into account the fact for the two minigames the winner does not get back his or her stake.) Long story short, the expected value for any of the entrants in the Springfield Downs races is about $1K and for the Go Kart races about $5K; just as previously stated by @00becker.

"frosted1414;c-1617197" wrote:

"00becker;c-1614674" wrote:

"KrustyBrand;c-1614611" wrote:

"pevh;c-1614564" wrote:
you can find somewhere on the tsto sites that the expected value of playing the dog race is 1000 money whatever option you choose. it wouldn't surprise me if the go-cart race follows suit. them ea programmers aren't stupid.

play the top option. the long run result will be the same but it is the smoothest ride.

Expected values for both Springfield Downs and the Go-Kart Track. The probabilities for winning are taken from the Simpsons wiki.
https://s4.postimg.org/sarxw6c6l/TSTO_SD_KG_EVs.jpg

How did you get your expected value numbers? I've done the calculations myself and my expected values all work out to be really close to the same amount. I'm really interested in where the differences in our calculations came from.

Maths:
2-1 at the dog track, odds are 50% for a win, cost is $2000, win is $6000. So you play twice and win once. Cost for two games is $4000. Purse less cost to play is $6000-$4000=$2000. Average winnings (expected value) is $2000/2=$1000.

5-1 at the dog track, odds are 25% for a win, cost $2000 again, win $12,000. Play four times and win once. Cost for four games is $8000. $12,000-$8000=$4000. $4000/4=$1000. etc. etc.

Without rounding (as in the example) the values are marginally over $1000 for each option, with the last choice (99-1) beating out the others by about $10.

And the Go Karts have even less variation. 9-1 at the Go Karts has a 20% chance for a win. So you play five games and win one of them. Five games cost $5000x5=$25,000. Winnings of $50,000 less cost of $25,000 is $25,000. Average winnings is $25,000/5=$5000. It holds true for every choice. There is more variation in XP payout, but even that's not much.

Overall, playing both games is profitable but which option you go with is irrelevant as all of the choices pay out the same over the long run.

2-1 odds does not mean 50% anything. It means payout of 2$ for 1$ wager PLUS returned wager
Thus, $2000 at 2-1 wins $4000 + $2000 = $6000
Probability of winning is quit differant.

The probability of winning for the 2-1 entrant is 50.51%. That figure (and other winning probabilities) are taken from the TSTO wiki which presumably got them from the game files.

"KrustyBrand;c-1617201" wrote:

"frosted1414;c-1617197" wrote:

"00becker;c-1614674" wrote:

"KrustyBrand;c-1614611" wrote:

"pevh;c-1614564" wrote:
you can find somewhere on the tsto sites that the expected value of playing the dog race is 1000 money whatever option you choose. it wouldn't surprise me if the go-cart race follows suit. them ea programmers aren't stupid.

play the top option. the long run result will be the same but it is the smoothest ride.

Expected values for both Springfield Downs and the Go-Kart Track. The probabilities for winning are taken from the Simpsons wiki.
https://s4.postimg.org/sarxw6c6l/TSTO_SD_KG_EVs.jpg

How did you get your expected value numbers? I've done the calculations myself and my expected values all work out to be really close to the same amount. I'm really interested in where the differences in our calculations came from.

Maths:
2-1 at the dog track, odds are 50% for a win, cost is $2000, win is $6000. So you play twice and win once. Cost for two games is $4000. Purse less cost to play is $6000-$4000=$2000. Average winnings (expected value) is $2000/2=$1000.

5-1 at the dog track, odds are 25% for a win, cost $2000 again, win $12,000. Play four times and win once. Cost for four games is $8000. $12,000-$8000=$4000. $4000/4=$1000. etc. etc.

Without rounding (as in the example) the values are marginally over $1000 for each option, with the last choice (99-1) beating out the others by about $10.

And the Go Karts have even less variation. 9-1 at the Go Karts has a 20% chance for a win. So you play five games and win one of them. Five games cost $5000x5=$25,000. Winnings of $50,000 less cost of $25,000 is $25,000. Average winnings is $25,000/5=$5000. It holds true for every choice. There is more variation in XP payout, but even that's not much.

Overall, playing both games is profitable but which option you go with is irrelevant as all of the choices pay out the same over the long run.

2-1 odds does not mean 50% anything. It means payout of 2$ for 1$ wager PLUS returned wager
Thus, $2000 at 2-1 wins $4000 + $2000 = $6000
Probability of winning is quit differant.

The probability of winning for the 2-1 entrant is 50.51%. That figure (and other winning probabilities) are taken from the TSTO wiki which presumably got them from the game files.

Yes. If you add all the probabilities it should be exactly 100%

"frosted1414;c-1617205" wrote:

"KrustyBrand;c-1617201" wrote:

"frosted1414;c-1617197" wrote:

"00becker;c-1614674" wrote:

"KrustyBrand;c-1614611" wrote:

"pevh;c-1614564" wrote:
you can find somewhere on the tsto sites that the expected value of playing the dog race is 1000 money whatever option you choose. it wouldn't surprise me if the go-cart race follows suit. them ea programmers aren't stupid.

play the top option. the long run result will be the same but it is the smoothest ride.

Expected values for both Springfield Downs and the Go-Kart Track. The probabilities for winning are taken from the Simpsons wiki.
https://s4.postimg.org/sarxw6c6l/TSTO_SD_KG_EVs.jpg

How did you get your expected value numbers? I've done the calculations myself and my expected values all work out to be really close to the same amount. I'm really interested in where the differences in our calculations came from.

Maths:
2-1 at the dog track, odds are 50% for a win, cost is $2000, win is $6000. So you play twice and win once. Cost for two games is $4000. Purse less cost to play is $6000-$4000=$2000. Average winnings (expected value) is $2000/2=$1000.

5-1 at the dog track, odds are 25% for a win, cost $2000 again, win $12,000. Play four times and win once. Cost for four games is $8000. $12,000-$8000=$4000. $4000/4=$1000. etc. etc.

Without rounding (as in the example) the values are marginally over $1000 for each option, with the last choice (99-1) beating out the others by about $10.

And the Go Karts have even less variation. 9-1 at the Go Karts has a 20% chance for a win. So you play five games and win one of them. Five games cost $5000x5=$25,000. Winnings of $50,000 less cost of $25,000 is $25,000. Average winnings is $25,000/5=$5000. It holds true for every choice. There is more variation in XP payout, but even that's not much.

Overall, playing both games is profitable but which option you go with is irrelevant as all of the choices pay out the same over the long run.

2-1 odds does not mean 50% anything. It means payout of 2$ for 1$ wager PLUS returned wager
Thus, $2000 at 2-1 wins $4000 + $2000 = $6000
Probability of winning is quit differant.

The probability of winning for the 2-1 entrant is 50.51%. That figure (and other winning probabilities) are taken from the TSTO wiki which presumably got them from the game files.

Yes. If you add all the probabilities it should be exactly 100%

And, yes, they do.

"smith69gers;c-1614271" wrote:
I always pick Drool Britannia.

"surefirein93;c-1614290" wrote:
Drool is my dog as well.

Same :smiley: Are you both British, too?

I pick the lowest odds and win almost every day, dogs and carts.

Thanks, I'll try that