Heirloom tracking

Like there's no way I haven't opened 500packs past these 2-3years.. I haven't received heirloom shards for so long.. Besides buying entire event boxes which doesn't count as I know.. But can you apex devs tell me how off im to being able to get them opening regular packs? Like I've feeling I've opened more than 500 regular packs but haven't received heirloom shards??? Can you please tell me how much off I'm if I haven't opened more than 500rrgular and haven't received my heirloom shards