ALGS Rules are Statistically UNFAIR
The current match point eligibility rule is statistically unfair. The current rules put the best team(s) at disadvantage and it is significant. The current rules give the team that reaches 50 points with the least amount of wins an unfair advantage, and it is very simple to explain. If two teams are of equal skills, Team A is more likely to get (50 points and n wins) than Team B to get (50 points and n+1 wins).
Example: Team B wins a match before 50 points. Team B would need 2 wins and 50 points to win compared to Team A which only need 1 win and 50 points. Apex is a game of averages. You might say Team A would have more chances to seal the deal because they reached Math Point first. That is not enough to offset the statistical disadvantage of having to win one more game.
I created this simulation to prove my point. The simulation setup is as follows: Team 1-2 have 7% chance to win a single game. Team 3-5 have 6%, Team 6-10 have 5%, and Team 11-20 have 4.3%. I ran the simulation for 10,000 ALGS matches. In such simulation you would guess that Team 1 and 2 have equal and the highest chances of winning, and you would be correct. Team 1 and 2 won 14.2% and 13.9% of the matches respectively (would converge in a larger sample). However, if we put a constraint that Team 1 won a match before reaching 50 points, their chances of winning plummet to 11.8% while Team 2 chances go up to 14.4%. I ran a third scenario with my proposed rules, a team needs to have 50 points and the most wins amongst teams with +50 points in order to win the match. Basically, a team is not Match point eligible, unless they have 50 points and equal amount of wins as the teams with +50 points. This simple fix made the match fair as both Team 1 and 2 chances of winning wen back to equal 11.7% and 11.9% respectively.
Out of 4 ALGS finals I watched, the team that reached 50 points with the least amount of wins won the match in three of them. If the rules don't change, this trend will continue because it's simple statistics.
I know I just wasted hour and a half coding this simulation, but these rules have been hurting me in the math, and I had to get it off my chest. If you want to organize a $5M tournament, you should at least make it fair.
