Statistical proof of rigged matchmaking over 30 consecutive matches with Randoms
Long post. If you are interested in the matchmaking keep reading or just skip to the results =)
From Sunday to Monday did I play 30 consecutive casual matches (with breaks ofc) as a solo. My goal was to investigate the matchmaking for a player like me: 2.4 overall K/D, peaked at master 10.000 RP, multiple 4k banners but only got 20kills once after 12k matches.
My aim with this experiment was to:
1) Investigate if the matchmaking is skill based, random or if an above average player (which I most likely am) purposely was matched with bad players against harder opponents.
2) How my performance affected the matchmaking in the next match
Some rules and conditions:
1) I only played Seer (I insta-left those few matches I didnt get him, sry to those randoms) because I wanted to have a consistent play style all matches. I also thought by having Kills as visible tracker would work as proof that it in fact was 30 consecutive matches but it took me a while to realize that those stats didnt show at the summery screen. You just have to trust me on this.
2) I did NOT include matches when I started solo or with only one teammate
3) I always tried to get jump master (which I got at least 50% of the matches) and I always jumped hot, usually among the 1-4 first areas in the drop ships path.
4) I did NOT include matches when one random jumped solo to a totally different area (looking at you Wraith main=). I did include matches when one random ran off solo and died though.
5) I did NOT include matches when one teammates ran away entirely from the fight where I died. This means when they ran to a totally different area, but I did include matches when they just played very cowardly but stayed in the same area.
6) If my teammates got knocked before me, I always fought until I died or won right there and then.
7) I would do the best I could to make my team play "aggressively i.e run towards fights but I would never go solo and leave my team. I never used snipers after early game either.
Results:
Damage:
Most damage in the team: 22/30 matches
2nd most damage in team: 7/30 matches
Least damage in the team 1/30 matches
In 18/22 of those matches I did most damage in team, I also did more than my two teammates put together.
K/D
78 kills/30 matches = 2.6 K/D
Placement:
Winner: 4/30
2nd or 3rd: 6/30
In 7/10 top-3 matches, I had to "hard carry" (defined as doing more than 50% of the teams total dmg)
Match 1 - 2nd place: 997 dmg dealt which corresponded to 70% of team total damage.
Match 3 - 2nd place: 2844 dmg dealt which corresponded to 76% of team total damage.
Match 4 - Winner: 3757 dmg dealt which corresponded to 58% of the total team damage.
Match 7 - 2nd place: 1430 dmg dealt which corresponded to 60% of the total team damage.
Match 17 - Winner: 632 dmg dealt which corresponded to 34% of the total team damage.
Match 19 - Winner: 1620 dmg dealt which corresponded to 57% of the total team damage.
Match 22 - 3rd place: 1632 dmg dealt which corresponded to 45% of the total team damage.
Match 24 - Winner: 1357 dmg dealt which corresponded to 55% of the total team damage.
Match 26 - 2nd place: 879 dmg dealt which corresponded to 55% of the total team damage.
Match 30 - 3rd place: 1313 dmg dealt which corresponded to 46% of the total team damage.
Conclusion:
I think this experiment shows (ofc not 100% proves) that:
1) The matchmaking is NOT random OR skilled based by the definition "matches similarly skilled players". I think its very obvious that above average players are, by design, teamed very often with much less skilled players and very rarely with equal or better players. For me to be able to win multiple fights and win matches, I almost always had to hard carry my teammates. Very often was at least one teammate so bad he barely landed a single shot each fight.
2) Above average players playing solo in casual are NOT matched AGAINST a majority of equal or more skilled opponents. The majority of my lobbies was quite casual. I very rarely lost a straight up 1v1 duel. I think the average skill level of my lobbies were similar to low gold, with a Diamond/Master/Pred class players popping up here and there..
3) Matches did NOT seem to get harder if you performed well in the previous match or easier if you perform badly. Honestly, I think all 30 matches had similar average skill level.
Last thoughts
So to summarize this little experiment : Yeah, you often get trash teammates but many of your opponents are also trash so maybe its fair (?).
- @Balladalidila We are all nannys in kindergarten - that's how this game was designed. Better players carry not so good players. Then not so good player learn the game and becomes nanny. But nannys rarely play with each other in random lobby. Is pretty always nanny and two kids VS nanny and two kids. It's a family game!
