I think it might be based on wins. At least for me it is. Here is why I think that:
First game: I'm obviously against newbs, I carry my team and win easily.
Second game: It's actually a well balanced game. Difficult fights where I barely live. My team and I either get lucky or we "Git Gud" and finish off the teams we are fighting and actually win the game with good stats.
Third Game: Lobby has a few sweaty TTV's. The TTV on my team is the sweatiest and carries the team to victory.
Fourth game: PREDS!!!!! PREDS EVERYWHERE! I get maybe a bullet off and die horribly!
Repeat Fourth game over until I give up for the night.
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