Probabilities are listed, so the odds are against you, and anything above is pure luck.
I agree with one thing — the current event seems to be flooding us with cards worth five shards, unlike past events, where we mostly ended up with ten or more.
Ragnarok and Captains are a prime example. I missed most of the 3k gem packs during that event since I was chasing 111 ADP and Pirlo in the side event, but I still managed to get Nedved in part one and Zidane in part two, both expensive (shard-wise) meta players. In Captains, I got Kahn and Marquez, and again did not buy many 3000 gem packs. Now we are near the end of week three in this event, and I barely have enough for half of what is needed to get Ibra or Thuram so half for one card.