11 straight phasma extra attacks.

"Cyclonus;50793" wrote:

"Baal;50718" wrote:


Flipping a coin is 1/2, that never changes. That doesn't mean that the odds of 11 repeats in a row is 50% but each flip is 50%, and is never greater or lesser than 1/2, it is not influenced by previous results.

This is correct, but you are not addressing the right question. The question is not about the probability (not odds) of any one assist. That is 1/6 (which again, I am sure this isn't really the case). The question is: what is the probability of getting 11 assists in a row. That is not 1/6, not even close. The probability is so low, it is almost a guarantee that one of these is at work: 1) the RNG is not actually random, 2) more variables are at work then have been accounted for, 3) that the probability is not 1/6 in the code, or 4) that initial poster is lying. My money is on 2 and 3 being the culprit here.

Here is text that may help:

"Example: Why is it unlikely to get, say, 7 heads in a row, when each toss of a coin has a ½ chance of being Heads?

Because we are asking two different questions:

Question 1: What is the probability of 7 heads in a row?

Answer: ½×½×½×½×½×½×½ = 0.0078125 (less than 1%).

Question 2: Given that we have just got 6 heads in a row, what is the probability that the next toss is also a head?

Answer: ½, as the previous tosses don't affect the next toss."

You are talking about question 2, this thread is about question 1.

The probability of 7 heads in a row is the same as this sequence happening: heads-tails-heads-tails-heads-tails-heads
But nobody will be surprised when that happens.

I think you guys will have to redo your math >:)

First the 16% doubles for any first order toons, but I don't know if the team your referencing had any besides phasma, but you at least have to factor in Phasma's higher percent.

Second, and I could be wrong here, but it was my understanding is the 16/32% only applies to when you play the team and the percent is boosted when AI is controlling the same team. It was my understanding that this was done to account for how poorly the ai does (ie-not focus firing, poor use of specials, not accounting for heal immunities, etc).

I don't believe the percentage for the assist for an ai team, has been made known, which is REALLY going to make this a tough calculation.

Good luck! :)

"Cyclonus;50793" wrote:

"Baal;50718" wrote:


Flipping a coin is 1/2, that never changes. That doesn't mean that the odds of 11 repeats in a row is 50% but each flip is 50%, and is never greater or lesser than 1/2, it is not influenced by previous results.

This is correct, but you are not addressing the right question. The question is not about the probability (not odds) of any one assist. That is 1/6 (which again, I am sure this isn't really the case). The question is: what is the probability of getting 11 assists in a row. That is not 1/6, not even close. The probability is so low, it is almost a guarantee that one of these is at work: 1) the RNG is not actually random, 2) more variables are at work then have been accounted for, 3) that the probability is not 1/6 in the code, or 4) that initial poster is lying. My money is on 2 and 3 being the culprit here.

Here is text that may help:

"Example: Why is it unlikely to get, say, 7 heads in a row, when each toss of a coin has a ½ chance of being Heads?

Because we are asking two different questions:

Question 1: What is the probability of 7 heads in a row?

Answer: ½×½×½×½×½×½×½ = 0.0078125 (less than 1%).

Question 2: Given that we have just got 6 heads in a row, what is the probability that the next toss is also a head?

Answer: ½, as the previous tosses don't affect the next toss."

You are talking about question 2, this thread is about question 1.

Spot on and beautifully explained ☺ Probability tree anyone?