Are you freaking kidding me?

"BaldingHead90;c-1905689" wrote:

"DarjeloSalas;c-1905666" wrote:

"BaldingHead90;c-1905612" wrote:
for example if they wanted a true 30% they could program it so every time you do an attempt if it's a multiple of 3 you always get exactly 1/3 and any additional attempts Do you understand what I'm saying?

So if I did 14 attempts it would be the highest product of 3 + whatever is left so at 14 attempts I'd get 12/3 so 4 shards 100% of the time and then 1*30% + 1*30% so I'd have an extra 30% chance to get 6 shards total. If I did 15 attempts I'd get exactly 5 shards.

This seems like the only way to actually remove the RNG and make drop rates more stable, you would only be gambling with 1/2 shards maximum at a time since if you got a multiple of 3 you're guaranteed to get that shard.

Now you may ask, what if I really need 3 shards and I only have enough energy for 3 attempts? Under the system I propose you would not have a chance to get more than 1 if you sim all 3 at the same time so you would have to sim 1 then 1 and then 1 agaim or you'd sim 2 then 1. Although this sounds like a problem the reality is that you're most likely not going to get 3/3 anyways and 100% chances to get 1 per 3 attempts over time it would benefit alot more. It's similar to the zeta challenge changes, sure you no longer can pull 2 but your chances of pulling it in the first place was too small so it pays off better to always get 1.

1) do you understand what you’re saying? Your 14 sim example, where you claim you’d have a 30% chance of getting 6 shards, is mathematically flawed. If it’s 30% chance for 1 event happening, the odds of it happening twice is NOT 30%

2) do you really think there’s any mileage in such a convoluted system? I mean, if 3 sims guarantees a shard then shouldn’t shards just accumulate like energy?

The drop rates are what they are, are not manipulated or changed, and a great many forum users are too statistically challenged to understand and deal with this.

Actually it is 30% each individual attempt is it's own 30% so it would be the same thing as repeating it 2 separate times.

That's right. And the chances of it hitting both times are 30% * 30% or 9%.

For fun, the odds of a 30% chance occurring 20 times (max sims) is: 0.00000000348% (about 1/28,000,000,000)

The odds of it occurring 0 times is: 0.00365% (about 1/27,000)

This is why you see so many 0/20 posts and no (to my knowledge) 20/20 posts. The latter is orders of magnitude less likely to happen.

(someone good with stats is welcome to check my math, I believe the underlying point is solid though)