Are you freaking kidding me?
Just WTF? This game loses any amount of fun... There is one guy in my shard that has already 3 G13 toons on his DR squad and I dont even get any pieces for one G13 sub piece...
Forum Discussion
"YaeVizsla;c-1907275" wrote:"ZAP;c-1907195" wrote:
Hundreds is not even close to figuring out averages. Hundreds of thousands is getting warmer, but will still create some outliers
Not... exactly. Or rather... no. Not how that works.
You cannot prove randomness. It's random. There will always be variance. There will always be outliers. You do not prove odds. You develop confidence intervals.
Given the context- rolling dice for events in the tens of percent- hundreds is a statistically significant set. Poking around at binomial calculators online, since it's been years since I've taken statistics, my 92 drops in 390 tries gives me a 99% confidence that the drop rate for finishers is somewhere in approximately the 15-30% range. As I make more attempts, that range will narrow.
Now, 16-30% is a pretty broad range. But it is still significant data, and lets us draw some meaningful conclusions. It tells us that the 10% estimate is very likely pessimism talking, not a reasonable estimate of the drop rate. It tells us the 20% estimate others have used seems fairly reasonable and perhaps even conservative.
At a thousand trials, that 99% confidence interval would be down around a 5% band. At twenty five hundred, it would a 2% band. And while you don't know what the odds are at that point, being able to say with 99% confidence that you're at this rate +/-1% is close enough for government work.
If you’re aggregating data, mine were hovering at around a 20% drop rate after 3 days (roughly 250 attempts for 50 pieces).
