Are you freaking kidding me?

On a small scale, some sets are better. Some sets are worse.

I've been tracking my finisher and kryotech drops. So far for finishers, I'm at 92/390 overall. 23.6%.

In there, I've got a couble 8/20s. I've got a 4/7. But I've also got a 1/13 and a 0/6.

It happens. Dice are swingy. But one bad roll does not a rigged RNG make.

"UnHolyLegion;c-1906022" wrote:
Man I've sim'd brood alpha almost 100 times over the past few days using crystals for cantina energy. I have gotten.... Wait for it..... A grand whopping 2.... Yes TWO omega mats. I'm going to record my drops and post results when I'm done.

25/30 percent drop rate ftw!!

I can’t tell if you’re trolling or not. Isn’t it common knowledge by now that cantina battles have an absurdly low drip rate for omega mats? I’ve done close to 100 sims of Brood alpha so far and gotten zero omegas.

"jhbuchholz;c-1905192" wrote:

"Austin9370;c-1905166" wrote:
My experience is that g13 has pretty good drip rates.

Drip rate... That seems like a much better description than drop rate. I'm going to start using it. ?

"Eutus;c-1905205" wrote:

"jhbuchholz;c-1905192" wrote:

Drip rate... That seems like a much better description than drop rate. I'm going to start using it. ?

I logged in just to agree with this sentiment. Drop rates will now be replaced with drip rates.

"Phern;c-1905623" wrote:
I’m ready for double drips!!!! 2 x drip = dripdrip

I'm not sure where "drip" rates came from. Feel free to ignore my edited post, lol

"TVF;c-1906089" wrote:
Yesterday I got one omega and zero Brood on two sims.

Slap in the face.

"BaldingHead90;c-1905612" wrote:

"RandomSithLord;c-1905164" wrote:
A sample of 11 attempts clearly provides sufficient data to make conclusions.

If only laboratories and companies would stop wasting money running hundreds or thousands of tests..

....I bet a finger that if he does another 11 he's not going to get more than 3 pieces, if he keeps doing 11 attempts he's going to get alot more 1s, 2s and 0s than 6-7s, so honestly I just don't buy that whole " drop rates will even out"

I hope it's your posting finger

@DanadHamar :

Been farming 5 attempts on G13 finisher salvage per day to keep track of some data on drop rates. 5/45 right now. Small sample size, but 11% seems pretty low

If I were you, I'd be jumping for joy.

Every single other person in the game is still working on g12 finishers. If you've got g13 salvage already, you're far ahead of everyone else.

"TVF;c-1907152" wrote:

"GlitterOutlaw;c-1906992" wrote:
thats why you dont do multi pulls more then 2 or 3.

Number of sims per attempt is irrelevant.

I ran 7/7/8 on geo alpha node today and got 4/4/6 shards. Everyone should sim 7 or 8 at a go! It's the absolute truth!

"ZAP;c-1907195" wrote:
Hundreds is not even close to figuring out averages. Hundreds of thousands is getting warmer, but will still create some outliers

Not... exactly. Or rather... no. Not how that works.

You cannot prove randomness. It's random. There will always be variance. There will always be outliers. You do not prove odds. You develop confidence intervals.

Given the context- rolling dice for events in the tens of percent- hundreds is a statistically significant set. Poking around at binomial calculators online, since it's been years since I've taken statistics, my 92 drops in 390 tries gives me a 99% confidence that the drop rate for finishers is somewhere in approximately the 15-30% range. As I make more attempts, that range will narrow.

Now, 16-30% is a pretty broad range. But it is still significant data, and lets us draw some meaningful conclusions. It tells us that the 10% estimate is very likely pessimism talking, not a reasonable estimate of the drop rate. It tells us the 20% estimate others have used seems fairly reasonable and perhaps even conservative.

At a thousand trials, that 99% confidence interval would be down around a 5% band. At twenty five hundred, it would a 2% band. And while you don't know what the odds are at that point, being able to say with 99% confidence that you're at this rate +/-1% is close enough for government work.

"TVF;c-1907152" wrote:

"GlitterOutlaw;c-1906992" wrote:
thats why you dont do multi pulls more then 2 or 3.

Number of sims per attempt is irrelevant.

This. I never understood why people think that you get better odds by doing fewer sims. That would make no sense at all

"USAFmedic129;c-1905738" wrote:


Because some rum is better than the topic.

Whiskey is also good