Maybe someone can explain this to me like I'm a 3 y/o. How am I losing almost every coin flip when my speed and my opponent's speed are equal? I've been tracking every since CG made this change and I am losing 75% of the opening "coin flips" on Lev despite having a maxed out cap ship. What is going on?
That's just how random chance works sometimes. Even if you only won the flip something like 6 out of 24 times, there's almost a 1% chance of that happening. So if 1,000 people did 24 battles since the change, 8 of them would be expected to have only gone first 6 of the 24 times.
If your sample size is small, it's not that unreasonable to see only a 25% success rate on the coin flip. As time goes on, you will probably see it stabilize closer to 50%.
You could also take a look at some of the alternative counters people have been experimenting with so you are not completely reliant on a single coin flip.
Honestly I always lose the coin flips. I just said to myself this game won't get anymore of my money. Lost a customer.
I understand how probability works but this seems fairly consistent. I'm wondering if there is some other factor that affects the coin flip like relic levels on ships or something.
It's just confirmation bias at work. Your sample size is still too small. That doesn't change anything about how awful it feels to lose the coin flip knowing you're either going to lose the battle or have to ride the struggle bus to a near time-out victory.
Losing 75% of your flips feels rigged, but it’s actually just random chance messing with you. Even with a fair coin, streaks like that can happen—it’s just the way luck works.
Whenever I feel like the odds are out to get me, I mess around with this site at https://flipsimu.com/ to simulate a bunch of flips. It’s kind of wild how often you’ll see weird streaks pop up, even when it’s totally random.
I have not done proper tracking of this, unfortunately, but I'm tempted to do so.
I'm highly confident that I'm way below 50% chance on going first since the change, I'd love to track this properly and get more people involved to generate enough data for this to go from anecdotal to facts based - and either prove or disprove my current feeling.
I do the mirror every time since my success rate is very high, regardless of who goes first, using the reaper method which tend to result in a new series of coinflips (and weirdly, for that second series of coinflips my feeling is much closer to 50/50 on winning them than on the opener).
I will do my best to track from todays climb and hope more will join in.
