Credit heist - probability to get 10M

Judging by the rewards here I really need to make sure I can complete the last teir by the next heist.

also I believe the more toons you have standing at the finish the more likely you are to get bigger rewards.

1x 5M
1x 2.5M

I've gotten 2.5m all 6 times.

Always tier 4 since beginning
2,5 m every time, and disappointed on last run coz got 1,5 m.
I think 2.5 is the smallest for t4.

The two attempts of today got 2.5 m each time at hardest tier

Today:

1st: 10M
2nd: 2.5M

I got 5m on my 2nd attempt this morning and all the other attempts since the new Heist has been implemented I have gotten 2.5m. No 10m and no 1.5m yet

5 x 2.5
1 x 5

1.5 x 3
2.5 x 3
On tier 4. Crap!