Drop Rate Reality

"Faff2D2;129291" wrote:

"Song;129279" wrote:
1 refilled in Cantina and did the Dooku mission got 3 shards out of 10. Seem correct. 30%

2 Refilled on regular energy and spend on node like 7B, 7C, on Dark/Light. got 2 shards that is 16%

So since the rate is allegedly 33%, yet there's so many folks claiming that they are well below that, where are the folks that are getting 40%? 50%? 60%? If there's so may running below average there must be some running above average, right? Seems people chime in to counter the poor drop rate thread with the fact they hit 30%. Is that the high water mark or the average??

If the % is 33%, you are more than twice as likely ro get 0 shards out of 3 than 2/3. In the end, fsctoring everything, it "seems" like you are more often below average than not, so it "feels" average is worse than it is. Never trust what you "feel" or see, your brain lies.

Case in example:
You try a hard node 100 times (300 attempts) You get 0 shards 30 times, get 1 shard 45 times, get 2 shards 20 times, get 3 shards 5 times. Total shards: 100. Total attempts 300. Average 33%. But you FREQUNTLY get 0 shards, while you RARELY get 3. So your brain register that you are below average more often than not. It is also easy to get lonher cold streaks thsn hit streaks (at best you can get 5 x3 in a row snd thst is unlikeky. With 30 times at 0 shards, cold streaks are likely) Even if you are perfectly average, you will "feel" you are not