True. My guess though is it is not an even 50/50. Maybe 60/40 in the ai's favor.
There is the logic that if younflipma coin 100x and comes up heads 100x, what the odds the next time is tails? Answer 50%.
Assuming 50/50, any 1 try the odds are even. If it were truly even i would most likely see the occasionall 9/10 runs where i go first. That has never happened. Had many 0/5, 1/10, etc type runs. I tracked my first 10 days after the tie dagfer chanfe fiasco and it was deplorable. It is managable now, but would i say 50/50? No. I would buy 60/40 though. Those first 10 days were 90/10.
It doesn't mean that YOU will see runs where you go first a lot of the time. Someone will. I've definitely had days where I go first 4 out of 5. People having large streaks aren't coming on the forums to grab about it. Likewise, people who are averaging the 50/50 aren't proclaiming it from the heavens. You only see the posts from the people who are mad about their bad streaks. So there is definitely a selection bias.
We really don't have sufficient evidence to suggest it's not 50/50.
