My perspective on probability

"KamikazeRhombus;180249" wrote:

"CPMP;179818" wrote:

"KamikazeRhombus;179526" wrote:

"sid;179494" wrote:
Past results do not influence future results. One should base their expectations accordingly.

Given a 1/3 shard drop rate:
If I get 0/9, then I am sad and expect a 3/9 drop rate in the future.
If I get 5/9, then I am happy and expect a 3/9 drop rate in the future.

Assuming the computer coding is written such that each battle is an independent event.

Even tossing a coin for 10 times and ending up tails, it won't increase the chance to be heads the 11th time.

While what you said is true that is not what I am arguing. My point was it could be programmed in a way that the game keeps count of how many "failures" (not getting the desired gear) in a row happen. Then if the number exceeds a defined value, like maybe 20 failures in a row, the game could either up the drop rate until you get the gear or give it to you on your next go. Obviously this means it's no longer independent which is what I was getting at. Tossing a coin should always be independent of previous attempts unless you are altering the coin based on previous attempts.

"Starjumper;180200" wrote:

"KamikazeRhombus;179526" wrote:

"sid;179494" wrote:
Past results do not influence future results. One should base their expectations accordingly.

Given a 1/3 shard drop rate:
If I get 0/9, then I am sad and expect a 3/9 drop rate in the future.
If I get 5/9, then I am happy and expect a 3/9 drop rate in the future.

Assuming the computer coding is written such that each battle is an independent event.

It's not an assumption. The word random by definition means that each battle will be independent.

True and the devs have said that before but they have also said that they were looking at ways to reduce cold streaks. If they did reduce the cold streaks similar to a way I described above then it would not truly be random.