Shard drop rate is toooooo low :(

Community tracked data and shard drop rate is about 33%. Unfortunately that’s rng, so you will have more and you will have less. Keep on farming and don’t think too much about it.

"Starslayer;c-2393446" wrote:
Community tracked data and shard drop rate is about 33%. Unfortunately that’s rng, so you will have more and you will have less. Keep on farming and don’t think too much about it.

Thanks for the info.

I mean...i can handle 2 shards per 5 allowed hard battles (that is 1 out of 5, because each battle potentialy gives 2 shards)...

But 0 shard per 5 allowed hard battles is too much for the heart...lol
And i must add...it happens often for me...

Some days...i spends 120 energies w/o getting any shards...

Sorry for having whined...as i said, it is too much for the heart...lol.

A picts that i posted at my guild's discord.



Oh yes...it happens in cantina too. 12 battles = 2 shards (1 out of 12 battles gave the shards).
Some days, 0 shard x_x

"nfidel2k;c-2393462" wrote:
It’s just probability. A 33% drop rate is not a guarantee that you will get one every three tries, any more than a 50% chance is a guarantee that you will get your desired result once when flipping a coin two times. It is entirely possible to get the opposite result twice; it’s actually 25% likely.
So while the odds of being unsuccessful go down with each additional attempt added to a batch of tries, they are never 0%.

Yes i know...

It is like tossing a 100-sided-die. 33 sides score 2 shards and the rest score nothing.

It is possible that when you toss that die 12 times, it always scores nothing.
But it is true that every toss has 33% probability of scoring 2 shards.

Still...knowing the theory and having often the bad experience (score nothing) are 2 different things...lol

It is too much for the heart, if you know what i mean...
Feeling angry when it happens...lol

I did 25 sims on nuLeia today

0/5 to start

Then 3/5 (6), 2/5 (4), 2/5 (4), 2/5 (4)

18 shards on 25 sims? Yes please.

"GegeGerard24;c-2393528" wrote:

"TVF;c-2393483" wrote:
I did 25 sims on nuLeia today

0/5 to start

Then 3/5 (6), 2/5 (4), 2/5 (4), 2/5 (4)

18 shards on 25 sims? Yes please.

Ooo...so thats how you guys do it...

Sadly, i dont have much crystals to refresh the attemp.
I am new and F2P player.

"New" means i havent been able to participate in those daily side games which give extra crystal everyday.
Like, rank <50 in fleet arena starts to give you 50 crystals everyday.

So...everyday, i stick to the 5 allowed hard battles only.

But then again...how does one explain "2 shards from 12 battles", some days, 0 shard and this is not an exageration...

Except, the RNG probability needs to be upgraded :p

33% drop rate means 67% no drop.

The chance of 5 in a row of a 67% thing happening is .67x.67x.67x.67x.67 for a pretty high 13.5%. Pretty close to 1/7, so seeing this once a week if you do 5 sims a day is pretty much to be expected.

The chance of just 2 in a row at 33% is
.33x.33 for 10.9%

So 5 in a row of no drops is more likely to happen than a mere 2 in a row of drops.

Why don't you often see 5 drops from 5 attempts? .33x.33x.33x.33x.33 is 0.4% chance of seeing this. Not often. But I have seen it. I've been playing for 5+ years, so I should have.

Someone will likely correct me here, I'm not great on this stuff. Could be wrong.

Just got this

"GegeGerard24;c-2393543" wrote:

"Winterwolves;c-2393539" wrote:

33% drop rate means 67% no drop.

The chance of 5 in a row of a 67% thing happening is .67x.67x.67x.67x.67 for a pretty high 13.5%. Pretty close to 1/7, so seeing this once a week if you do 5 sims a day is pretty much to be expected.

The chance of just 2 in a row at 33% is
.33x.33 for 10.9%

So 5 in a row of no drops is more likely to happen than a mere 2 in a row of drops.

Why don't you often see 5 drops from 5 attempts? .33x.33x.33x.33x.33 is 0.4% chance of seeing this. Not often. But I have seen it. I've been playing for 5+ years, so I should have.

Someone will likely correct me here, I'm not great on this stuff. Could be wrong.

No...not once a week.
I am sure it is more than once a week, according to (what little) experience i have.

So...1 out of 5 is 33% (i dont ask much. Just 1 battle out of 5 gives me the shards. So lets put aside, for now, the "2 out of 5 = 10.9%") and 0 out of 5 is 13.5%...
Why do i get the feeling that i often get 0 out of 5?

Again...this math doesnt explain the 1 out of 12 above...

Let me document all my attempts next week and post those here.

Don't bother. 1 week of data from 1 player is not enough to establish anything.

1 out of 12 seems odd because people expect random to mean the same as "evenly distributed". It's not. This game has no mercy system where after 5, 10 or 50 attempts it guarantees a drop. Each attempt is independent and only 33%. You could have had an unlucky run of 20 no drops. It doesn't make number 21 any more likely to have a drop. It's still 33%.

Are you farming more than 1 character? Any more than 5 attempts per day throws off my stuff above. And the days where you get 3 balance out a bunch of zero days (no math here, I'm just spitballing).

Over the long term, over all players, it's 33% per attempt. Someone will be able to point you at the big data gathering discords and spreadsheets. Or just search the forums/internet.

My math above was just to show that 33% can feel bad, because all the other results pile up between the lucky runs. Especially if you've started to focus on the bad and dismiss the good.

Inb4 somebody brings back the "3 sims a time makes better drop rates" "theory".

"TVF;c-2393579" wrote:

"MrTanner;c-2393549" wrote:
0 x 2 = 0

Backwards

Communative property.

"PeachyPeachSWGOH;c-2393547" wrote:
Inb4 somebody brings back the "3 sims a time makes better drop rates" "theory".

It was 2. And I haven't seen that posited in a while. I assume they were shamed into silence or got lost in the grocery store and never made it home to a charger.