"GegeGerard24;c-2393543" wrote:

"Winterwolves;c-2393539" wrote:

33% drop rate means 67% no drop.

The chance of 5 in a row of a 67% thing happening is .67x.67x.67x.67x.67 for a pretty high 13.5%. Pretty close to 1/7, so seeing this once a week if you do 5 sims a day is pretty much to be expected.

The chance of just 2 in a row at 33% is

.33x.33 for 10.9%

So 5 in a row of no drops is more likely to happen than a mere 2 in a row of drops.

Why don't you often see 5 drops from 5 attempts? .33x.33x.33x.33x.33 is 0.4% chance of seeing this. Not often. But I have seen it. I've been playing for 5+ years, so I should have.

Someone will likely correct me here, I'm not great on this stuff. Could be wrong.

No...not once a week.

I am sure it is more than once a week, according to (what little) experience i have.

So...1 out of 5 is 33% (i dont ask much. Just 1 battle out of 5 gives me the shards. So lets put aside, for now, the "2 out of 5 = 10.9%") and 0 out of 5 is 13.5%...

Why do i get the feeling that i often get 0 out of 5?

Again...this math doesnt explain the 1 out of 12 above...

Let me document all my attempts next week and post those here.

Don't bother. 1 week of data from 1 player is not enough to establish anything.

1 out of 12 seems odd because people expect random to mean the same as "evenly distributed". It's not. This game has no mercy system where after 5, 10 or 50 attempts it guarantees a drop. Each attempt is independent and only 33%. You could have had an unlucky run of 20 no drops. It doesn't make number 21 any more likely to have a drop. It's still 33%.

Are you farming more than 1 character? Any more than 5 attempts per day throws off my stuff above. And the days where you get 3 balance out a bunch of zero days (no math here, I'm just spitballing).

Over the long term, over all players, it's 33% per attempt. Someone will be able to point you at the big data gathering discords and spreadsheets. Or just search the forums/internet.

My math above was just to show that 33% can feel bad, because all the other results pile up between the lucky runs. Especially if you've started to focus on the bad and dismiss the good.