So I tracked 2,000 drops
The purpose was to get an idea of their model and figure out what was the best way to obtain the infinite amount of gear required. It wasn't really to find out what their exact "drop rate" is.
If you're going to post, I simmed 20 twice and got 1 so your analysis is wrong...just...don't...
I was looking to answer questions like
-What's the cost model of obtaining gear different ways
-Is it better to sim 1 or 2 at a time vs 20?
-Are drops rates variable, I simmed 40 and got 4, is EA messing with me?
First of all, simming 1-2 at a time did not produce any statistical difference than 20 at a time. I suspected this anyway just from how programming works and the fact that the results of 20 produce numbers like 11 and 7 which are prime. What it DOES do is prevent you from seeing both really good and really bad results with an emphasis on the later. People have 1 out of 20 Stun Cuff sims seared into their head forever.
Is the sample size "large enough". I'm going with good enough for an event with a discrete, binary outcome.
"I've had really long stretches of really bad results". I saw really long stretches of both really good and really bad results. As the sample size gets larger, everything regressed to the mean. Common sense dictates they are not going to individually set your drop rate at 10% one day and 40% the next day.
Cantina toons
Farmed Chewie, TFP, Chirpa, B2, Lando, Kylo Ren
162 shards out of 544 sims = 29.78%
In fact, nearly every individual toon had their drop rate around 30% so it wasn't like TFP was 10% and Lando was 50%.
I'm convinced every cantina node/toon is set to 30% and doesn't change.
Gear
1389 sims of Stun Guns, Cuffs, Holo Projectors, Droid Callers, Detonators and Carbanti and few others but those were 90% of the samples. I started to see a pattern evolve. To no surprise, the drop rate depended on the min energy needed to farm it but to my surprise, each of the gear at each energy cost level were identical.
10 energy = 20%
8 energy = 28%
6 energy = 36% (Ok, it was actually 35 but I'm going with 36 is more likely their model)
From this point, let's call them just 10, 8 and 6. Now to the real reason for doing this, the cost basis with 120 energy @ 50 crystals.
Node cost | EV of 120 energy | drop rate | Crystal cost per salvage | Cost for completed piece
10 | 2.4 | 0.2 | 2.4 | 20.83 | 1,041,6
8 | 4.2 | 0.28 | 4.2 | 11.9 | 238
6 | 7.2 | 0.36 | 7.2 | 6.94 | NA
The PvE store, Cuffs are 1400 and Holo Projectors are 300 which place them right in between the cost of 50 crystal refreshes and 100. It also makes sense since you would expect the store to be slightly more than the cost of a cheap refresh.
Using Cuffs and MK3 Holo Projectors as the baseline, (0.8 and 0.74), there are some clear discrepancies in both the PvE and Ship Shipments stores. Furnaces are insanely cheap as everyone knows but Stun Guns are a better buy than Cuffs and Carbanti are insanely overpriced. In the Ship store, Cuffs are the best buy while Holo projectors are insanely overpriced. The 650 gear in the ship store is insanely overpriced as well while in the PvE store there are several G10/11 gear bargains.
I'm working on a gear chart and the best way to obtain them: Farm, PvE or Ship store.
Edit: Column headings, thanks Maegor
If you're going to post, I simmed 20 twice and got 1 so your analysis is wrong...just...don't...
I was looking to answer questions like
-What's the cost model of obtaining gear different ways
-Is it better to sim 1 or 2 at a time vs 20?
-Are drops rates variable, I simmed 40 and got 4, is EA messing with me?
First of all, simming 1-2 at a time did not produce any statistical difference than 20 at a time. I suspected this anyway just from how programming works and the fact that the results of 20 produce numbers like 11 and 7 which are prime. What it DOES do is prevent you from seeing both really good and really bad results with an emphasis on the later. People have 1 out of 20 Stun Cuff sims seared into their head forever.
Is the sample size "large enough". I'm going with good enough for an event with a discrete, binary outcome.
"I've had really long stretches of really bad results". I saw really long stretches of both really good and really bad results. As the sample size gets larger, everything regressed to the mean. Common sense dictates they are not going to individually set your drop rate at 10% one day and 40% the next day.
Cantina toons
Farmed Chewie, TFP, Chirpa, B2, Lando, Kylo Ren
162 shards out of 544 sims = 29.78%
In fact, nearly every individual toon had their drop rate around 30% so it wasn't like TFP was 10% and Lando was 50%.
I'm convinced every cantina node/toon is set to 30% and doesn't change.
Gear
1389 sims of Stun Guns, Cuffs, Holo Projectors, Droid Callers, Detonators and Carbanti and few others but those were 90% of the samples. I started to see a pattern evolve. To no surprise, the drop rate depended on the min energy needed to farm it but to my surprise, each of the gear at each energy cost level were identical.
10 energy = 20%
8 energy = 28%
6 energy = 36% (Ok, it was actually 35 but I'm going with 36 is more likely their model)
From this point, let's call them just 10, 8 and 6. Now to the real reason for doing this, the cost basis with 120 energy @ 50 crystals.
Node cost | EV of 120 energy | drop rate | Crystal cost per salvage | Cost for completed piece
10 | 2.4 | 0.2 | 2.4 | 20.83 | 1,041,6
8 | 4.2 | 0.28 | 4.2 | 11.9 | 238
6 | 7.2 | 0.36 | 7.2 | 6.94 | NA
The PvE store, Cuffs are 1400 and Holo Projectors are 300 which place them right in between the cost of 50 crystal refreshes and 100. It also makes sense since you would expect the store to be slightly more than the cost of a cheap refresh.
Using Cuffs and MK3 Holo Projectors as the baseline, (0.8 and 0.74), there are some clear discrepancies in both the PvE and Ship Shipments stores. Furnaces are insanely cheap as everyone knows but Stun Guns are a better buy than Cuffs and Carbanti are insanely overpriced. In the Ship store, Cuffs are the best buy while Holo projectors are insanely overpriced. The 650 gear in the ship store is insanely overpriced as well while in the PvE store there are several G10/11 gear bargains.
I'm working on a gear chart and the best way to obtain them: Farm, PvE or Ship store.
Edit: Column headings, thanks Maegor
